Source: China Fund News
On December 15, the 13th Hong Kong International Finance Forum 2023 was held in Hong Kong.
The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Li Dahong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of the Hong Kong Grand Duke Wenhui Media Group, and Zhu Xian, former Vice President of the World Bank, delivered speeches. Yi Xuedong, director of the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission Research Center, presented the Chinese and English version of the “Report on the Overseas Development of Central Enterprises (2023)” at the forum. More than 300 guests attended the event, including Hong Kong politicians and business figures, foreign consuls general in Hong Kong, mainland and Hong Kong listed companies, heads of venture capital institutions, and economists.
Li Jiachao: Building Hong Kong as a Green Fintech Hub
The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Li Jiachao, said in a video message that the Central Financial Work Conference pointed out that finance should provide high-quality services for economic and social development and clearly support Hong Kong in consolidating and enhancing its status as an international financial center.
Li Jiachao pointed out that the SAR government will make full use of the unique advantages under “one country, two systems” to support the steady financial system established by Hong Kong over the years and continue to develop healthily. He said, “We will also continue to strengthen Hong Kong's role as the world's largest offshore RMB service center. We will continue to deepen financial cooperation within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, further connect with domestic and foreign markets and investors, create a more innovative and diversified financial market, and contribute to the country's high-quality development.”
Li Jiachao said that today's event will present awards to the winners of the China Securities “Golden Bauhinia Award” and the Hong Kong ESG List annual selection, respectively. The China Securities “Golden Bauhinia Award” was founded in 2011 and has now become one of the financial industry awards that has received high praise from the industry and is a reputable financial industry award. The birth of a new batch of winners not only shows the strength of enterprises, but also reflects the unending momentum of the country's financial industry; the Hong Kong ESG list annual selection was held for the first time this year. Green and sustainable development are the goals and responsibilities of the common destiny of humankind. The HKSAR Government has set targets to reduce carbon emissions by half by 2035 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Li Jiachao said that Hong Kong's world-leading financial and professional services are a powerful catalyst that can accelerate the green transformation of Hong Kong, the country, and the world. He said, “In my Policy Address, I announced that in the first half of next year, a proof-of-of-concept testing funding scheme specifically designed for green fintech will be launched. Our goal is to broaden Hong Kong's green fintech ecosystem and make Hong Kong a green fintech hub.”
Li Dahong: Strengthening and Enhancing Hong Kong's Status as an International Financial Center from Three Aspects
Li Dahong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), chairman of Hong Kong Dagong Wenhui Media Group, and editor-in-chief of Hong Kong's Dagong Wenhui Media Group, shared three views on how Hong Kong can make full use of its strengths and characteristics and consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial center.
First, we should write big articles on fintech and green finance to build a fintech hub in the Asia-Pacific region and a green finance center in Asia. Li Dahong said that technology is currently reshaping the service model of the financial industry. Hong Kong should further improve the fintech ecosystem and enable financial institutions to accelerate digitalization and product innovation to better serve the real economy in the ever-changing technology wave. At the same time, with the introduction and promotion of China's “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” goals, Hong Kong should fully seize the opportunities of the global carbon market and green finance market to help the country achieve the goal of transition to a green economy, and push the Hong Kong financial industry to the forefront of international trends and further achieve diversified development.
Second, the positive role of Hong Kong as an offshore RMB hub should be exploited to help promote the internationalization of the RMB. In recent years, Li Dahong pointed out that the role of the renminbi as an international currency has gradually matched China's position as the world's second largest economy and the largest trading country in goods. In line with the target requirements of speeding up the construction of a financial power in the future, the internationalization of the RMB will be further advanced steadily and steadily. As a global offshore RMB center, Hong Kong has the largest offshore RMB capital pool and the largest offshore RMB foreign exchange market. It has the conditions and ability to make greater contributions in this regard. It should enrich RMB market products, improve financial infrastructure facilities, optimize cross-border payment processes, improve the efficiency of cross-border transactions, and help the RMB be used more widely internationally.
Third, the connectivity of financial markets should be further deepened to enhance Hong Kong's competitiveness as a global financial center. Li Dahong said that in the past 30 years, from the listing of H shares to the launch of “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” and “Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect”, Hong Kong and the mainland have created a new model of cross-border securities investment. In the future, they should also continue to build resource factor circulation highways to provide more capital for the capital markets of the two places. Furthermore, Hong Kong's financial service capabilities in the fields of banking, securities, foreign exchange, insurance, etc., are in a leading position in the world, and it is possible to build a “Belt and Road” infrastructure project financing center, insurance and reinsurance center to provide diversified financing channels and risk mitigation solutions through the capital market. “Belt and Road” investment and financing hub The functional role of.
Zhu Xian: Hong Kong should focus on technology industry cooperation to play the role of green finance
Zhu Xian, former vice president of the World Bank, said in his video address that Hong Kong will play a more important role in the internationalization of the renminbi, global climate finance, and green finance.
Zhu Xian pointed out that in 2023, affected by various factors such as conflicts triggered by geopolitics, continued interest rate hikes in the world's major developed economies such as Europe and the US, global inflation, and the resettlement of the global industrial chain supply chain, etc., the global economy had ups and downs, and is moving forward on the path of recovery. Hong Kong is an important international financial center and plays a unique and important role in the world, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The Hong Kong economy continued to recover steadily in 2023, and GDP increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, showing the resilience and vitality of the Hong Kong economy.
Zhu Xian said that Hong Kong can play a unique role in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and help promote coordinated regional development. Hong Kong should focus on technological and industrial cooperation, promote the efficient and convenient flow of people, technology, goods, information, capital, etc., and continue to take advantage of the advantages of a complete market system, a sound legal system, an excellent business environment, and a high level of openness to provide a model for the comprehensive construction of a regional common market in the Greater Bay Area.
Zhu Xian believes that Hong Kong is the city with the highest degree of internationalization and is currently the financial center most closely linked to the motherland's economic development among global financial center cities. “One country, two systems” allows Hong Kong to have a free business environment, a simple tax system, a daily mechanism in line with the international community, a sound financial infrastructure, and strict legal supervision. It can fully rely on the huge mainland market to provide financing services for the high-quality development of Hong Kong and the mainland. Hong Kong will also play a more important role in the internationalization of the renminbi, global climate finance, and green finance.
Yi Xuedong: The investment volume of state-owned enterprises in the “Belt and Road” exceeds trillion US dollars
Yi Xuedong, director of the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission Research Center, presented the Chinese and English version of the “Report on the Overseas Development of Central Enterprises (2023)” at the forum.
Yi Xuedong said that the “Report on Overseas Development of Central Enterprises (2023)” consists of a main report (6 aspects) and 16 sub-reports of central enterprises, focusing on the main achievements of central enterprises in integrating into global development, helping a high level of openness, achieving mutual benefit and win-win situation, and promoting sustainable development. As of March 2021, central enterprises have more than 8,000 institutions and projects in more than 180 countries and regions around the world, with 1.25 million overseas employees and total overseas assets of nearly 8 trillion yuan; 38 central enterprises are on the list of the top 100 Chinese multinational companies in 2023, of which 6 central enterprises are on the list of the top 100 global multinational companies in 2023; central enterprises have invested and cooperated in more than 5,000 “Belt and Road” construction projects in 140 countries, with a cumulative investment amount exceeding 1 trillion US dollars.
Yi Xuedong said that central enterprises have invested and cooperated in more than 5,000 “Belt and Road” construction projects in 140 countries.
Yi Xuedong pointed out that in terms of serving the local green transformation and promoting sustainable development, resolutely implement the solemn commitment to “not build new overseas coal power projects” and increase investment in green environmental protection projects; central enterprises have continuously improved the level of pollution prevention and emission reduction treatment and resource utilization efficiency; promoted the concept of “green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains” to the world, and helped host countries carry out desert management and ecological restoration work in various forms.
Yi Xuedong said that central enterprises will turn global development initiatives into practical actions and inject Chinese strength into promoting the steady recovery of the world economy and achieving common development; central enterprises will pay more attention to establishing a good overseas image, make good use of environmental, social and governance (ESG) tools to achieve sustainable development goals; and central enterprises will strive to build world-class enterprises with global competitiveness, influence and contribution by leveraging their strength and advantages.
Hong Hao: There is a high probability that the US economy will recession in 2024, and capital will flow back to emerging markets
In his keynote address, Hong Hao, chief economist of Sirui Group, said that the current unemployment rate and return on assets in the US are at levels prior to previous economic downturns in history. Coupled with the current bubbles in the US semiconductor, artificial intelligence and other industries, extreme earnings uncertainty has increased, and the probability of a US recession next year is expected to be higher than expected, around 50%.
Hong Hao mentioned that if the Fed lowers the benchmark interest rate next year, the US dollar exchange rate falls, and the crisis of bursting bubbles in the US stock market, especially in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries, rises, capital may begin to flow out of the US market and return to emerging markets. He also said that China, as the largest emerging market, will still be the biggest beneficiary next year.
Regarding expectations for the Chinese market, Hong Hao said that the RMB exchange rate cycle has reached its bottom. He expects that in the next 6-12 months, the downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate will dissipate. Meanwhile, the mainland and Hong Kong markets will gradually recover in 2024.
Guo Lei: External pressure is decreasing, and China's exports and corporate profits are expected to improve next year
Guo Lei, chief economist and managing director of Guangfa Securities, said in his keynote speech that in 2024, the external pressure faced by emerging markets, including China, will ease somewhat, and the probability that China will achieve 5% economic growth is high. Furthermore, with the end of the overseas inventory removal cycle, China's exports are expected to achieve single-digit growth in 2024, corporate profits will improve markedly, and PPI will return to positive growth.
Guo Lei said that judging from commodity market data, the period of greatest pressure on China's economy is over, but it still takes time for favorable factors to spread to the stock market. He said that the Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago mentioned that next year we should adhere to stability and progress, promote stability through progress, and break through first. Relevant statements indicate that next year, China's economic policy will be further strengthened, with steady growth as the goal. At the same time, finance will become an important driving force for domestic demand.
Guo Lei also mentioned that in terms of real estate development, the increase in the share of guaranteed housing is worth paying attention to. In terms of consumption, residents still have great consumption potential in fields such as sporting events, new energy vehicles, and electronic products. As for residents' more rational consumption choices, it is related to cyclical factors and the increase in consumption choices brought about by e-commerce development. The conference, on the other hand, mentioned large-scale equipment updates, involving the midstream manufacturing industry, but it remains to be seen exactly how this will be achieved.
Guo Lei stressed that over a longer period of time, the Chinese economy still has strong endogenous advantages such as demographic dividends, engineer dividends, and rewards for hardworking people, while China's current talent density has no equivalent economy to replace it, so there is confidence that China's economy will grow in the medium to long term.
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