Performance this week: this week (07.29-08.04) the Shenwan leisure service index rose 2.72% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The Shenwan Leisure Services Index (801210) fell 0.17%, while the CSI 300 Index fell 2.88%. Leisure services ranked third among Shenwan's 28 first-tier industry indexes.
In terms of individual stocks, the stocks that have gained a lot this week are:Changbai Mountain(+ 6.83%)、Tengbang International(+ 5.45%)、Song Cheng Performing Arts(+ 3.91%). The stocks that have fallen most this week are:Yunnan tourism(- 8.71%)、Dalian Shengya(- 7.67%)、Pingtan development(- 6.29%). As of August 02, from the historical PE level of catering tourism (16), the PE valuation (TTM) of the tourism industry is 30.5X, while the average value of 2004-19 is 40X. The current valuation level is about a premium of-23.7% over the historical average. The PE (TTM, holistic method) of scenic spots is 22.5X (historical mean is 41.7X), and the PE (TTM, holistic method) of non-scenic spots is 29.5X (historical mean is 37.9X). As of August 2, the premium rate of key tourism companies (16) to all A shares was 211.19% (historical average 213.00%), scenic spot companies 155.36% (historical average 221.67%), and non-scenic spot tourism companies 233.92% (historical average 202.07%).
Industry key information tracking: key data: China Tourism Research Institute released the report on Tourism Economic Operation and outbound Tourism Development in the first half of 2019. The number of domestic tourists is expected to reach 3.08 billion / + 8.8% in the first half of 2019. Domestic tourism income is 2.78 trillion yuan / + 13.5%, the estimated number of inbound tourists is 72.69 million / + 5%, and international tourism income is $64.9 billion / + 5%. The number of outbound tourists is about 81.29 million / + 14%. Macau's lucky gaming gross revenue in July was 24.5 billion patacas, down 3.5% from the same period last year. From January to July, lucky gaming gross revenue was 174 billion patacas, a slight drop of 0.9% from the same period last year. Industry trends: the executive meeting of the State Council identified three measures to promote cultural and tourism consumption. 47 cities on the mainland have suspended individual visits to Taiwan, which may reduce the number of tourists by 700000 in half a year. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has decided to deal with seven 5A-level tourist scenic spots that are seriously substandard or have serious problems, such as Qiaojia compound in Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province. "Nezha" became a hit, with a cumulative box office of more than 2 billion yuan. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism cancelled the outbound travel business of 51 travel agencies in 7 months. Online travel: Meituan tickets: "flash into the park" function settled in 2700 scenic spots across the country. Traveloka, an online travel unicorn, is negotiating a new financing of $500m. Duty-free: all samples of duty-free cosmetics in outlying islands of Hainan Province are qualified. According toMorgan StanleyThe report predicts that tax-free sales in China will quadruple by 2025. The summer shopping season of Sanya International Duty Free City has been officially launched.Baiyun AirportJoin hands with T1 and T2 terminals related catering and retail stores, entry and exit duty-free shops, etc., to launch a series of August promotional feedback activities. Hotel: the latest list of the top 325th global hotel groups: Jinjiang ranks second and OYO squeezes into the top 8. Accor's RevPAR in China fell 1.3 per cent in the first half of this year, while RevPAR in the Asia-Pacific region fell 0.2 per cent. Fosun Luwen signed a contract to Dujiangyan, 10 billion to rebuild the culture and travel complex and hotel. Qiming Venture led the $45 million financing of Budget Inn platform RedDoorz. Traffic: relations between Japan and South Korea continue to deteriorate, and people-to-people exchanges on many routes are blocked. Southeast Asia ride-hailing service platform Grab was awardedSoftbank Corp.An additional investment of 2 billion US dollars.
Tracking of key announcements of listed companies:
(1)China National Travel Service(601888.SH): the company released results KuaiBao: 19H1 realized revenue, net profit and net profit deducted from non-return were 243.44, 32.79 and 2.5 billion yuan respectively, up 15.46%, 70.87% and 30.86% respectively over the same period last year; if excluding the influence of CITS, 2019H1's revenue and net profit after deducting non-return increased by 51.94% and 33.04%, respectively The general meeting of shareholders of the company examined and passed the motion on investing in the construction of Haikou international duty-free city, etc.
(2)Impression of Sanxiang(000863.SZ): 19H1 achieved revenue of 1.463 billion yuan / + 63.58% and net profit of 383 million yuan / + 934.81%.
(3)Qujiang literary brigade(600706.SH): according to the preliminary calculation of the financial department, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to decrease by about 4 million yuan to 11 million yuan in 2019 compared with the same period last year, and by about 5% to 15% compared with the same period last year. After deducting non-recurring profit and loss, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies decreased by about 10% and 20% year-on-year.
(4)Lijiang tourism(002033.SZ): 19H1 achieved a revenue of 318.3485 million yuan /-7.07% and a net profit of 98.0455 million yuan /-17.53%.
(5)Guilin tourism(000978.SZ): 19H1 received a total of 4.16 million tourists /-0.21%; the company realized revenue of 300.4685 million yuan + 16.83%; and the net profit of returning home was 9.9162 million yuan /-66.16%.
(6)Jinjiang co.(600754.SH): this 153 million non-public offering restricted shares will be listed and circulated on August 5, 2019, and the type of shares will be issued by private placement institutions.
Changes in stock holdings of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect this week (calculated by share of tradable shares): CITS reduced its 0.03pct to 12.90%First Travel HotelReduce 0.95pct holdings to 12.18%China Youth Travel ServiceReduce 0.39pct to 5.22%; Songcheng Performing Arts to 1.35% 0.07pct; Jinjiang shares to 0.81% 0.05pct.
Major reminders of listed companies in the next two weeks: 8.05: Jinjiang restricted shares listed and circulated; 8.07: Songcheng Performing Arts shareholders' meeting Internet voting start
8.08: Songcheng Performing Arts shareholders' meeting held; 8.10: Dadonghai A / Lijiang Tourism China News expected disclosure date; 8.13:Tibet tourismExpected disclosure date of the China News; 8.15:Hua Kai's creativityExpected disclosure date of China Youth Travel Service; 8.16: expected disclosure date of China Youth Travel Service China News.
This week's point of view: the growth rate of domestic tourism slowed down in the first half of the year, the growth rate of outbound tourism remained relatively fast, the growth rate of catering income above the quota increased compared with last year, and the steady growth of catering was not affected by the slowdown in economic growth. Macau gaming fell 3.5% in July, and according to sources, hotel data showed no signs of improvement in July. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and Sino-US trade frictions, we continue to be optimistic about the rapid growth of sub-industries and good medium-and long-term industry patterns and prospects for tax exemption, performing arts, hotels and catering; in addition, entering the peak tourism season, we can pay attention to the elastic targets of low-valued private scenic spots in the short term; we maintain the target of core competitiveness, sound profitability and room for growth in all areas that benefit from the huge domestic consumer demand. Investment advice:
The first category: high-quality white horse in the industry: China Travel Service (the deduction of non-tax deduction has greatly increased by 33%, the duty-free industry has maintained a high demeanor, four new duty-free shops in the city have been opened since May, and the duty-free shops in Shanghai are about to open. The opening of duty-free shops in the city is advancing rapidly, the city stores have opened new growth space, the port exit shop policy has landed, the industry norms have been strengthened, the company's core competitive advantage is significant, and the tax-free policy dividend is worth looking forward to). The second category: subdivided areas of high-quality targets: Songcheng Performing Arts (steady progress in the reorganization of six rooms, excellent offline performance, the opening of a new round of heavy assets projects),Tianmu Lake(steady growth in performance and determination of extension layout development strategy), Jinjiang (pessimistic expected repair, 19-year integration is expected to bear fruit, store opening is higher than superimposed structure optimization to drive RevPAR growth), first Travel Hotel (valuation is at the bottom area, 19 years of new store opening, direct store renovation and RevPAR growth are expected to lead to performance growth),Guangzhou Restaurant(employee stock option incentive landing, steady growth, food and catering two-wheel drive, remote expansion and production capacity improvement drive performance growth), China Youth Travel (low base superimposed Expo and traffic improvement are expected to lead to the warming of passenger flow in Gubeishui Town, scenic area passenger unit price continues to raise low valuation)
Risk tips: systemic risk of social service industry; risk of price reduction of environmental protection passenger transport of tickets and ropeways; risk of corporate governance; loss of impairment of goodwill; adverse factors such as extreme weather and epidemic situation; deterioration of international relations or terrorist attacks; systemic risk in the secondary stock market.