国有出版龙头 ，望深度受益AI 和MR 发展，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。公司在夯实图书出版发行主业的同时，一方面以全资子公司博库集团为线上业务的核心，加强图书发行，携手阿里成立“天下网商”进军电商服务，投资开发“火把知识”布局知识服务。另一方面以青云在线为阵地发展教育业务，开办“STEM”课程迎合素质教育大趋势，结合VR 开发虚拟实验课程。公司各项业务有望深度受益AI 和MR 的技术进步。我们预测2023-2025 年EPS分别为0.70/0.77/0.82 元，参考可比公司估值给予目标价10.40 元，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company is a leading publishing company in Zhejiang Province. Its main business is book publishing and distribution. The new business covers e-commerce, online education, digital products, etc. Investing in AR leader Rokid is expected to complement the main business.
Key points of investment:
The leading state-owned publishing company hopes to benefit deeply from AI and MR development, and for the first time, coverage has been given an “increase in holdings” rating. While consolidating its main business in book publishing and distribution, the company has, on the one hand, used Boku Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary, as the core of its online business, strengthened book distribution, joined hands with Ali to establish “World Online Merchants” to enter e-commerce services, and invest in the development of “hot knowledge” to lay out knowledge services. On the other hand, Qingyun Online is used as a base to develop education business, launch “STEM” courses to meet the major trend of quality education, and develop virtual experimental courses in combination with VR. The company's various businesses are expected to benefit profoundly from technological advances in AI and MR. We forecast EPS for 2023-2025 to be 0.70/0.77/0.82 yuan respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave a target price of 10.40 yuan, covering the first time, a “increase in holdings” rating.
Zhejiang is deeply involved in the global market, and its performance is steady and dividends are high. The company is a publishing group belonging to Zhejiang Province. Its business covers publishing, distribution, online education, digital products, etc., and is affiliated with eight publishing houses, forming a product line focusing on the six major categories of children, social science, literature, art, culture, education, and lifestyle. Net profit for the past 3 years has maintained positive growth. In 2018-2022, the CAGR of online book sales revenue reached 31%, the dividend rate in 2022 was 4%, and the main business progressed steadily.
Invest in new technology companies such as Rokid, hoping to complement the main business. The company has taken a stake in domestic AR leader Rokid through the Chunxiao Digital Publishing Fund. The latter's products have been combined with iPhone spatial video shooting. At the same time, Rokid's products are easy to wear, or are combined with digital reading, virtual experiments, and STEM courses to innovate content presentation formats.
The education business is on the rise, and Qingyun Online already has a first-mover advantage. Qingyun, a wholly-owned subsidiary, offers scarce “STEM” courses in China online. It is currently exploring and combining AI to expand K12 artificial intelligence education, which is in line with the major trend of quality education in China. At the same time, new courses such as VR experimental courses have been launched, seizing opportunities in MR education.
Risk warning: book sales fall short of expectations, new business development falls short of expectations, etc.
