For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 15.33 yuan. The forecast is for 23-25 revenue of 68.59/76.53/81.75 billion yuan, +0.53%/11.58%/6.82% of the same period; net profit of 3.94/5.49/660 billion yuan, +60.17%/39.27%/20.32% of the same period last year, EPS of 0.65/0.90/1.08 yuan, and BPS of 5.72/6.42/7.45 yuan. The P/E and P/B relative valuation methods were used for valuation, and relatively conservative valuation results were selected, and the company was given a target price of 15.33 yuan.
The company has significant advantages in clearing global transactions, helping Chinese enterprises seize opportunities for rapid growth in overseas financial services and achieve development beyond expectations. 1) Demand for overseas financial services such as risk management for Chinese enterprises is rising, and due to the security and confidentiality of capital and information, they prefer to use domestic futures companies, which is expected to drive the continuous expansion of the overseas business scale of domestic futures companies; 2) The company has a large number of transaction clearing licenses on major overseas exchanges and has significant advantages in global transaction settlement capabilities, and can provide customers with a “one-stop” service, which is expected to better grasp customer needs.
In recent years, the company's forward-looking implementation of an international development strategy has driven strong profit growth, and is committed to building a financial services company with derivatives business as the core. 1) The company was founded in 1996 and has developed into a fully licensed comprehensive futures company, and is moving towards a “financial services company with derivatives business as the core”; the company's profitability is strong, and since 2021, the net profit growth rate has been higher than the industry average; 2) The company's profit is mainly driven by overseas financial services business. In 2022, the operating profit of overseas financial services business was +15.66 times year-on-year, which is the core driving factor for overall operating profit growth. The incremental contribution is as high as 286.17%; the rapid growth of overseas financial services has benefited from the company's forward-looking internationalization Development strategy and strong execution.
Catalyst: Corporate demand for overseas financial services has increased steadily, and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.
Risk warning: The scale of transactions in the futures market fluctuates greatly.