Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the pace of product sales and the amortization of incentive costs, the 2023-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.79/0.93/1.29 yuan (originally 0.90/1.18/1.50 yuan). Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the 2024 PE 40X was given, and the target price was raised to 37.20 yuan, maintaining the increase in holdings rating.
A new round of equity incentives shows confidence. The company released the 2023 stock options and restricted stock incentive plan (draft), and plans to grant 462 executives, middle management and core technology/business cadres a total of 30 million shares/10,000 shares (2.69% of the total share capital), the initial grant of 24.72 million shares/10,000 shares, the stock options exercise price is 25.39 yuan/share, and the restricted stock grant price is 15.87 yuan/share. The 100% performance exercise conditions are 25%/50% growth rate for 2024-2026 70% (up 25%/20%/13% year over year). A new round of equity incentives is conducive to fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of the company's core team and demonstrating confidence in long-term development.
Internationalization is progressing smoothly. On December 11, the company and Egyptian vaccine company Gennavax Egypt signed an authorized agent and technology transfer agreement for the dual-vector 13-valent pneumonia vaccine to jointly promote the approval and marketing of the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine in Egypt and distribute the original solution locally. In October, the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine obtained a marketing license in Indonesia. Since 2022, the company has successively signed cooperation agreements with partners in the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, India and other countries to continue to expand the overseas distribution of vaccines such as the 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine, and chickenpox, etc., and is expected to gradually contribute more in the future.
The human diploid vaccine has been officially approved, and the research pipeline is well-stocked. The human diploid rabies vaccine was officially approved in September. It is expected that it will contribute significantly in 2024 with the entry and batch issuance of the recruitment standards. The company is currently researching more than 30 projects, and its rich product line provides an important guarantee for future sustainable development.
Risk warning: vaccine sales volume fell short of expectations