盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司23-25 年营收分别为43.19 亿元、50.04 亿元和56.20 亿元，归母净利分别为2.02 亿元、3.86 亿元和5.13 亿元，考虑业务协同和潜在资源整合机会，以及近期传媒板块整体估值中枢上移，给予公司24 年30x PE，对应合理总价值116 亿元人民币，对应合理价值8.17 元/股，给予“买入”评级。Incident: On December 13, TV and Radio Media issued an announcement. Hunan Radio, Film and Television Group Co., Ltd., the indirect controlling shareholder of the company, intends to transfer 16.66% of the shares held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Hunan Radio and Television Network Holding Group Co., Ltd. (“Network Control Group”) to Mango Media Co., Ltd. (“Mango Media”) free of charge, thus changing the controlling shareholder of TV and radio media from Network Control Group to Mango Media. Since Hunan Radio, Film and Television Group is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Hunan Cultural Assets Administration Commission, the actual controller after the transfer is still the Hunan Provincial State-owned Cultural Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.
Mango Media has abundant capital on hand and is concerned about potential capital operation space in the future. On July 25, Mango Supermedia announced that it plans to use its own capital of 835 million yuan in cash to acquire 100% of the shares in Golden Eagle Cartoon held by Mango Media, the controlling shareholder of the company. On October 23, Mango Supermedia issued an announcement. Mango Supermedia has paid 835 million yuan of equity transfer money to Mango Media, and Golden Eagle Cartoon has completed registration procedures for industrial and commercial changes. As the controlling shareholder of TV and Radio Media after this transfer, Mango Media has plenty of capital on hand, opening up room for further imagination in capital operations in the future.
The unification of the controlling shareholders of TV, radio and media and Mango Supermedia is expected to accelerate the empowerment of Mango's IP and the collaboration of Mango resources. After this equity change was completed, the controlling shareholders of TV and Radio Media and Mango Supermedia all became Mango Media. Mango Media's shareholding ratio in Mango Supermedia is 56.09%. After this transfer, Mango Media's shareholding ratio for TV and radio media will change to 16.66%. We believe that after the transfer, TV and radio media will have the same largest shareholder as Mango Supermedia, which will help the two to strengthen online and offline collaboration and make better use of the capabilities of mango genes and mango IP.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We expect the company's revenue for the year 23-25 to be 4,319 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan and 5.62 billion yuan respectively, and net profit of 202 million yuan, 386 million yuan, and 513 million yuan respectively. Considering business collaboration and potential resource integration opportunities, as well as the recent upward shift in the overall valuation center of the media sector, the company is given a “buy” rating of 30x PE in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable total value of RMB 11.6 billion, corresponding to a reasonable value of RMB 8.17 per share.
Risk warning: The implementation of cultural tourism projects falls short of expectations, venture capital business falls short of expectations, stricter supervision, etc.
