Source: Wall Street News
According to analysis by Great Wall Securities, humanoid robots are expected to become a 100 billion dollar blue ocean market. Under neutral assumptions, the compound growth rate for 2025-2035 is 68.6%, and it is estimated that the scale of use in the manufacturing and household services market in 2035 will be 110.3 billion US dollars.
On December 13, Tesla suddenly released a video of the humanoid robot Optimus 2nd generation (Gen2).
Compared to the first generation Optimus, the second generation of the upgraded version seems to have made significant improvements in weight, flexibility, body balance, and control. Some analysts believe that with the current pace of iteration, Optimus robots may soon be able to replace humans in many fields.
According to the video, the second-generation Optimus is equipped with: an actuator and sensor designed by Tesla, 2 degrees of freedom to drive the neck, a more responsive 11-degree of freedom dexterous hand, tactile sensors (ten fingers), integrated actuator electronics and harnesses, foot force/torque sensors, articulated toes, etc.
China Securities pointed out in a research report that the biggest marginal increase in the release of second-generation Optimus products is the sensor. Sensors are the core link for humanoid robots to interact with the outside world, achieve torque, and tactile feedback. In this context, Gen2 showed better total body control and balance (squats), as well as more precise hand handling (egg handling):
With the advancement of intelligence, the complexity of interaction between humanoid robots and scenes has increased, leading to an increase in the demand for sensors. On the other hand, with the rapid iteration of Optimus products, commercialization is expected to accelerate.
The sensor layer includes (1) a six-dimensional force sensor, (2) a tactile sensor, and (3) a body balance (IMU).
Great Wall Securities also stated bluntly in the report that humanoid robots are expected to become a 100 billion dollar blue ocean market. It is estimated that under neutral assumptions, the global humanoid robot manufacturing and home service market will be 110.3 billion US dollars in 2035:
As the functions of humanoid robots become more diversified and popularized, the division of labor in the industry is becoming more mature, and costs continue to drop, humanoid robots are expected to be popularized in industry and commerce first, and gradually expand to household use and the public sector. According to calculation analysis, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2025-2035 is 68.6%.
Humanoid robots iterate rapidly and can be expected to be marketed
Great Wall Securities pointed out in the report that humanoid robots (humanoid robots) are an important branch of robots. Their characteristics are similar to human appearance, such as having a head, trunk, hands, and feet, but not necessarily with subtle features such as hair, facial features, or teeth.
According to the report, the advantages of “anthropomorphic” give humanoid robots the versatility and universality of their functions. With their functional, morphological, and thinking advantages, humanoid robots are currently the closest robots to humans. They are expected to be widely used in various jobs in society, bringing a wide range of application scenarios, and huge demand potential is also expected to promote the rapid development of the humanoid robot industry:
Functionally, it is possible to act and think like a human, which means that it can independently complete technical work through learning like a human. This makes humanoid robots expected to be used in agricultural farming, mining, handling, assembly, etc.
In terms of form and mindset, it can complete social interaction and export emotional value like a human being, which means it can play a more diverse role in the field of social services, and is expected to be used in the fields of old-age care, medical care, education, exhibition explanation, and food delivery.
From a supply perspective, Great Wall Securities believes that humanoid robots are highly integrated and involve a variety of cutting-edge technologies. Specifically, humanoid robots can be divided into 3 major 6 subsystems. 3 are mostly mechanical parts, sensing parts, and control parts; the 6 subsystems are driving systems, mechanical structure systems, sensing systems, robot-environment interaction systems, human-computer interaction systems, and control systems:
Control system: It is the “brain and nerve center” of a humanoid robot. It mainly includes system software and application software to control the degree of freedom, accuracy, working range, speed, and carrying capacity of the robot;
Drive system: Also known as a servo system, it is an automatic control system that uses mechanical position or angle as the control object;
Mechanical structure system: It is the foundation of humanoid robot systems, including the main transmission system;
Sensing system: composed of internal sensors and external sensors to obtain meaningful information on internal and external environmental conditions;
Human-computer interaction system: a device where the operator participates in the control of a humanoid robot and communicates with the humanoid robot;
Robot-environment interaction system: A system in which humanoid robots connect and coordinate with the external environment.
Great Wall Securities pointed out that due to its huge industrial chain, it has attracted a lot of capital to enter the market to accelerate industrial development. Referring to other robots, the humanoid robot industry chain can be divided into upstream components and software system development, midstream body manufacturing, downstream system integration and sales:
Upstream: In terms of hardware, speed reducers, servo motors, controllers, and sensors are the four core components of humanoid robots. The level of development of related technology affects the mechanical performance of humanoid robots to a large extent. In terms of software, software system development relies on simulation software. Its patent barriers are high, and technological development requires high data accumulation. Currently, the “big four families” of foreign robots all have simulation software operated in private domains.
Midstream: The main body manufacturer has strong assembly capabilities to complete component integration according to the needs of downstream integrators.
Downstream: System integrators generally lead the design of humanoid robot technology frameworks, and complete tasks such as channel construction and after-sales service.
The huge industrial chain allows a large number of enterprises in many fields to participate, bringing broad investment opportunities to the capital market, and also bringing more financial support to various related enterprises to help development. Based on the amount of value, individual components such as motors, speed reducers, force sensors, and screws are high in value and usage, so this type of participant is expected to be the first to benefit.
Great Wall Securities expects humanoid robots to take the lead in manufacturing. According to the level of technological development and strategic plans of major enterprises, humanoid robots are expected to be first popularized in the manufacturing industry in the short term, and then expanded to household use and the public sector.
Estimation of the size of the humanoid robot market
Great Wall Securities pointed out that the manufacturing industry is expected to take the lead in popularization and drive large-scale development of the industry. Under a neutral assumption, the global sales volume of humanoid robots in the manufacturing sector is estimated to be 12.8 million units in 2035, the global scale of humanoid robots by 2035 is 107.1 billion US dollars under neutral assumptions, and the CAGR for 2025-2035 is 71%:
In terms of household services, Great Wall Securities believes that the initial scale may be smaller than the manufacturing industry. Under a neutral assumption, it is estimated that the global sales volume of humanoid robots in the home service sector will be 370,000 units in 2035, the global scale by 2035 will be 3.1 billion US dollars under a neutral/conceptual assumption, and the 2025-2035 CAGR will be 43.4%:
Under a neutral assumption, the number of humanoid robots owned by 100 households in the world is 0.11 units/100 in 2035. We use the number of households in countries and regions such as the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the 27 European Union countries to approximate the penetration rate of humanoid machines. The results showed that by 2035, under the conservative/neutral/optimistic scenario, the ownership volume of 100 households would be 0.03/0.11/0.46 units/100 households, respectively.
Judging from the application in the public service field, Great Wall Securities determines that humanoid robots have mature interaction capabilities before they can be more widely used in the public service sector.
The market potential is huge, and there is an urgent need for many parties to work together
According to the above estimates, Great Wall Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become a 100 billion dollar blue ocean market. Under a neutral assumption, the global humanoid robot manufacturing and household service market will sell 13.18 million units in 2035, the CAGR in 2025-2035 is 98.2%, the market size is 110.3 billion US dollars, and the 2025-2035 CAGR is 68.6%.
Great Wall Securities pointed out that during the research process, it was discovered that: 1. The approval of the first batch of products to be launched is very important for industrial development; 2. The manufacturing industry may dominate the early market; 3. The US and Japan will be the main demand countries, and the Chinese market is in urgent need of policy support; 4. The popularization of household/public services may be relatively backward, but the potential space is broad.
The approval of the first batch of products launched is very important to the development of the industry. Based on the elasticity analysis, we can draw two conclusions. First, when the growth rate and other conditions are fixed, future sales volume is very sensitive to the initial sales value. This means that if humanoid robots get off to a good start, then they may usher in an explosion period earlier, rapidly expand volume and quickly establish a complete industrial chain, and achieve a virtuous cycle of large-scale production and sales — cost reduction and efficiency — and rapid popularization.
Second, the initial sales volume reflects the market's recognition and evaluation of early products, which affects the sales and iteration of subsequent products, which in turn affects future growth rates. If humanoid robots start well, they may continue to develop rapidly at a higher growth rate in the future; if they start slowly, they may experience exponential growth in the next few years due to major product developments, etc., and the growth rate will decline after the base increase.
The manufacturing industry may dominate the early market. Benefiting from the rapid development and industrialization of technologies such as high-end manufacturing and new materials, the humanoid robot mechanical motion system problem is expected to be overcome first, thus meeting basic industrial-grade operation requirements. On the other hand, as labor costs rise and population aging problems intensify, many countries around the world have experienced a serious manufacturing labor gap and labor costs continue to rise, driving the use of humanoid machines in the manufacturing industry.
The household/public service penetration process may be relatively backward, but the potential scope is vast. The intelligent and generalization of humanoid robots is the main development direction in the future. Benefiting from the development of artificial intelligence technology, robots already have the ability to learn independently. Although they are currently unable to provide human-robot interaction and emotional communication in complex situations, humanoid robots can already skillfully complete functions such as talking to people, writing, and painting according to instructions.
Break through key points of technology and improve quality, and reduce costs and increase efficiency in large-scale industrial chains
Great Wall Securities believes that the two technologies that humanoid robots urgently need to overcome at this stage are motion control technology, batteries, and thermal management technology:
More freedom for humanoid robots indicates higher flexibility, higher motion complexity, and a wider range of potential applications. Theoretically, the degree of freedom of humanoid robots should be close to the number of human joints (78), but the average degree of freedom of humanoid robots that have been released so far is about 36, which is still far from the theoretical goal.
The battery life of humanoid robots is the key to improving working hours. The average battery life of the humanoid robots that have been released so far is 5.3 hours. With the exception of Pepper and Optimus, all other products have a battery life of less than 3 hours, which is far from the ideal state.
At the same time, Great Wall Securities pointed out that technological iterations, process innovation, etc. are expected to drive down costs. The reduction in the cost and price of humanoid robots can be analyzed and anticipated from three aspects: product, production, and industrial chain:
Currently, the cost and sales price of published robots is generally above 100,000 US dollars, and the cost of Atlas and ASIMO is even as high as 2 million US dollars. The high cost limits the production and application of humanoid robots to a large extent.
Product side: Optimize the technical path and simplify the structural design. For example, humanoid robots can simulate human work through artificial muscles. If this technology is successfully implemented, it is expected to replace traditional bulky and complex driving and sensing units in intelligent structures and systems, optimize product structure design, and reduce component costs.
Production side: improve process level and increase large-scale output. Through process innovation, it helps to improve material and energy utilization and improve yield. Through large-scale production, it helps reduce unit labor costs and fixed costs, and gives all links in the industrial chain room and motivation to sell more at low profit, reducing overall costs and terminal product prices.
Industrial chain: improve the division of labor in the industrial chain and improve production efficiency. The mature division of labor and cooperation in the industrial chain is conducive to the rational allocation of resources, helps enterprises to make full use of their advantages, and improves the efficiency and collaboration of the entire industrial chain.
Editor/jayden