Greenway, December 13 | Jefferies published a report saying that the market's expectations of another 10-15% drop in property prices in Hong Kong are too pessimistic. Although the bank agreed that the increase in mortgage interest rates would reduce the affordability of homebuyers, it believes demand for structured housing remains strong because new talent plans support population growth, the resurgence of branch households after the pandemic, and the aging of assets driving demand for replacement or upgrades. The bank believes that property prices will fall as low as the number of medium units in the next six months, and it is expected that property prices will rise moderately in the second half of the year. The bank continued to prefer Hengdi (0012.HK) and Lingzhan (0823.HK), and upgraded the ratings of Xindi (0016.HK) and Credit (0083.HK) to “buy”. According to the bank, Lingzhan has a dividend rate of 7% and has adopted a strategy of continuously updating its portfolio. Based on the valuation, the “buy” rating is still being given to leading, but close attention is being paid to potential investment risks such as the slowdown in mainland consumption. Furthermore, the bank has expanded its coverage and given the MTR (0066.HK) a “hold” rating, indicating that the MTR's stock price has been weak recently, reflecting developers' freezing of land reserves and a rise in capital debt ratios due to huge capital expenditure. Even if there are surprises in the housing market, the MTR will only be the beneficiary in the later stages of the cycle. At the same time, the bank also gave Wharf Group (0004.HK) a “outperforming market” rating, and the group's mainland and Hong Kong luxury property businesses faced continued resistance. The bank expected that after incorporating catalytic factors into the index, the stock would reverse its previous leading performance.