The price of carbon carbon thermal fields bottomed out and rebounded, and the company's cost advantage was remarkable. The company officially entered the hot field field in 2021 and rapidly expanded production. Currently, the production capacity has reached 3,500 tons, and the total sedimentation capacity is expected to reach 5,500 tons. Since 2021, the price reduction of carbon and carbon hot fields has accelerated, and the industry's profit margin has been severely compressed. It is difficult for second-tier manufacturers in the industry to make a profit, and the supply side has begun to clear up. However, the installed capacity of new photovoltaics continues to grow, demand for replacement of existing monocrystalline furnaces is high, and the price of carbon carbon thermal fields has bottomed out and rebounded. The company has significant cost advantages in the hot field process. The prefabricated body has been completely self-manufactured. At the same time, it has developed its own large-scale deposition equipment, focusing on equipment automation, and effectively optimizing production efficiency and reducing production costs.
The supply of high-purity quartz sand is tight, and quartz crucibles maintain high profitability. Currently, only a few manufacturers in the world have the ability to mass-produce high-purity quartz sand. Due to its mineral resource properties, its supply elasticity is low, and high-purity quartz sand will remain in short supply in the short term. The purity of quartz crucibles seriously affects the pull-on quality of silicon wafer mills. Based on the channel advantages of high-purity quartz sand, quartz crucibles maintain high profitability. The company acquired 90% of Jingyiyang's shares in November 2022 and officially entered the quartz crucible field, continuously optimizing management to improve efficiency and expand production capacity. The company plans to complete 20 quartz crucible production lines in Jiangyou, Sichuan within 2023, and achieve a total annualized design capacity of 3020,000 units after delivery. The company has cooperated with many downstream monocrystalline silicon manufacturers such as Gaojing Solar, Hongyuan New Materials, and Jingao Solar, etc., and the collaborative sales of hot field crucibles have achieved remarkable results.
There is unlimited room for imagination in the carbon-based platform business, and carbon ceramic brake discs and carbon anode boxes are about to be replaced. The company's industrialization cooperation continues to accelerate. At present, the company has carried out industrial cooperation with many car companies from Beiqi Foton and Jingxi Heavy Industries to jointly develop carbon ceramic brake disc products, and has received a fixed place for carbon ceramic brake discs from a leading new energy vehicle company. Compared with graphite cassettes, carbon anode cylinders have superior material properties, longer life, lower density, and stronger compression resistance. They are ideal materials in the field of lithium battery anodes, and have a large market space. The company extends the carbon carbon anode bowl outward based on carbon-based platform technology to replace the graphite cartridge, and has supplied it to many customers.
Investment suggestions: We expect the company's net profit from 2023-2025 to be 3.9/7.9/1.15 billion yuan, up 116.4%/104.2%/44.9% year on year, corresponding to EPS of 0.69/1.41/2.04 yuan. The corresponding valuation of the current stock price is 24X/11X/8X. Considering that Tianyi Shangjia's short-term business inflection point is approaching, that it has outstanding advantages in various fields in the medium term, and that it is based on a long-term carbon-based composites platform, and that development can be expected, we maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: PV installation demand growth falls short of expectations, changes in the competitive landscape, fluctuations in raw material prices, and penetration rate growth falls short of expectations.