Looking at it from the top down, the reform of the country's central enterprises is deepening and advancing, and the revaluation of the country's central enterprises is expected to become a continuing theme. The reform of state-owned enterprises in the past ten years can be divided into four stages: 1) initial blueprinting+gradual piloting; 2) comprehensive rollout+vigorous development; 3) in-depth promotion+quality priority; 4) high-quality development+strengthening, improving, and expanding. Currently, under the strategic goal of high-quality development, the new round of state-owned enterprise reform focuses on one major goal, one major idea, two major approaches, and four key words. By improving core competitiveness and enhancing core functions, the efficiency and efficiency of enterprises can be improved, while increasing the layout of emerging industries, and benchmarking against world-class standards by enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities.
Looking at it from the bottom up, from the perspective of selecting enterprises, in the context of “one profit, five rates,” there is the following investment paradigm with a high win rate for central enterprises. 1) From a profit perspective, compared to total profit, investors are more sensitive to the profit growth rate of central enterprises. The growth rate is higher than the national GDP growth rate, and 30% is the actual preferred water level; 2) Under the ROE perspective, enterprises with better ROE performance tend to obtain better profit performance that year. Comparing the stability and marginal improvements of ROE itself vertically is more significant than the horizontal comparison of the absolute level of ROE for the current quarter. Investors' recognition of the stability of ROE in recent years is less than that of the continuous improvement of ROE; 3) When the financial structure is relatively stable, focus on the expansion opportunities of some industries with low leverage levels and enterprises with low levels of leverage within the industry; 4) From the perspective of OCF/OR, OCF checks the quality of business operations, and OCF/OR has better earnings performance from a long-term perspective of central enterprises located at the upstream level of the industry (10%-30%).
The China Securities Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index sets a benchmark for the quality of central enterprises. 1) Judging from the distribution of first-level industries, the market value distribution of the Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index is scattered; 2) In terms of weight, the central enterprise restructuring index is adjusted based on whether it is a “high-tech” enterprise. After adjustment, the weight of strategic emerging industries and technological innovation industries has increased; 3) Looking at market value distribution, the general market style of the Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index is obvious; 4) From the perspective of weighted individual stocks, the central enterprise restructuring index weighs the stock industry relatively balanced, and the concentration of weight is not high; 5) The central enterprise structural adjustment index, net profit ratio, and market profit ratio, market profit ratio, net profit ratio, market profit ratio, has been increased. The current valuation is relatively low from a perspective; 6) Based on the past 12 months There is cross-validation between the dividend rate factor and the expected dividend rate based on the dividend momentum framework. The China Securities Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index currently has a high dividend rate, and is expected to continue its high dividend characteristics; 7) 2023 is the low performance of the China Securities Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index. Fundamental recovery is expected to be achieved in 2024, and the performance growth rate is predicted to resume double-digit growth before and after position adjustment.
Analysis of the investment value of the Central Enterprise Reform ETF (512950). Huaxia Fund Management Company was founded in April 1998 and is one of the fund management companies with the widest range of business fields. As of December 8, 2023, Huaxia Fund has 7 “10 billion club” members in the ETFs managed by Huaxia Fund, including the Science and Innovation 50 ETF, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, and the Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF. Central enterprise reform ETFs currently have a scale advantage among similar ETFs. Fund managers have been awarded 17 products currently under management, with a scale of over 130 billion dollars, and rich management experience.
Risk warning: changes in overseas monetary policy have exceeded expectations; the situation of overseas geopolitical conflicts is unclear; statistical results are based on objective data and do not constitute investment advice
