Source: Wall Street News

The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US fell beyond expectations in October and fell back to the lowest level since March 2021, releasing signs of further cooling in the job market and strengthening expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next year to avoid recession. After the data was released, the decline in US Treasury yields widened. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 4.20%, breaking a new three-month low. The interest-sensitive two-year US Treasury yield is approaching the five-month low set by last Friday.

Although the price of US Treasury bonds rebounded, US stocks did not rise sharply, and the performance of major US stock indexes varied. The Dow Index and S&P continued to decline, and the Nasdaq successfully turned positive with the support of some technology stocks such as Apple and Nvidia. China Securities continued to decline overall, while losses in the third quarter increased year-on-year but narrowed over expectations, and NIO Auto's stock price rose sharply during the intraday period, with a record high delivery volume.

After US job vacancies were announced, the US dollar index jumped and stood at 104.00 intraday for the first time in almost two weeks. Non-US currencies fell sharply in the intraday period, and the offshore renminbi declined further. It fell below 7.17 in the intraday period and continued to fall below the four-month high set last week. A responsible comrade from China's Ministry of Finance answered questions from reporters on Moody's outlook for downgrading China's sovereign credit rating, saying that China's macroeconomic recovery continues to improve, and that high-quality development is progressing steadily. It is expected that China's economy will maintain a positive trend in the fourth quarter, and that China is still an important engine for steady growth in the world economy.

Some commentators pointed out that it is worrying that investors are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates too quickly. Currently, the market is strongly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. There is a risk that if the Fed chooses to keep interest rates high for longer, this kind of bet will be hurt. Some analysts believe that the market has fully absorbed the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by May next year. The sharp rise in US stocks and long positions in November make it doubtful how far the gains will go. At least until further data is obtained, this kind of doubt will exist until further data shows a soft landing trend.

According to CME (CME) tools, the current interest rate futures market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 125 basis points next year, and is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by June. Among them, the probability of cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in March is over 60%, which is almost double the probability expected a week ago. At the same time, according to LSEG data, investors expect that the probability that the ECB will cut interest rates by March next year will reach 77%.

Cryptocurrency and gold each continued Monday's trend. After breaking the 40,000 US dollar mark for the first time since April last year on Monday, Bitcoin continued to rise sharply on Tuesday, approaching 44,000 US dollars in the intraday period, pulling up more than 3,000 US dollars from a daily low, continuing to hit a new high over a year, continuing to benefit from market optimism that the US Securities Regulatory Commission will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF. However, gold, which was suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar, repeated its intraday decline and continued to fall from the record high it had set before turning down on Monday.

International crude oil has not been able to withstand the pressure of the strengthening US dollar. It has continued to decline since the OPEC+ oil production policy meeting last Thursday announced voluntary increases in production cuts, falling to a closing low for nearly five months. According to some reports, OPEC+ is preparing to increase production cuts in the first quarter of next year. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that if the current production cuts are not enough, OPEC+ is preparing to cut production further in the first quarter in order to eliminate speculation and fluctuations in the oil market. However, analysts believe it is unlikely that OPEC+ will cut production drastically. As reflected in the recent drop in oil prices, OPEC+'s ability to strictly implement new production cuts has been questioned.

Apple and Nvidia led the way in blue-chip technology stocks, and the China Securities Index fell three times in a row, but NIO's earnings report rose sharply in the intraday period

The three major US stock indexes collectively opened lower for three consecutive trading days, with mixed performance in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained its decline in early trading. At one point, it fell by more than 190 points and more than 0.5%. After falling nearly 0.4% at the beginning of the session, the S&P 500 index turned upward in the short term, narrowing its decline in midday trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 0.4% at the beginning of the session and turned upward less than half an hour after opening. Since then, the overall trend has remained strong, only turning down in the short term at the end of early trading.

In the end, of the three major indices, only the NASDAQ closed higher, with an increase of 0.31% to 14229.91 points, breaking away from the low since November 17, which fell back on Monday and was refreshed. The Dow closed down 79.88 points, or 0.22%, to 36124.56 points. It was the first two consecutive declines since November 9, and continued to fall from the closing high since January last year set last Friday. S&P closed down 0.06% to 4567.18 points, continuing to break away from the closing high set on Friday since March 30 last year.

The small-cap stock index Russell, which is dominated by value stocks, fell more than 1% in early trading in 2000, closing down 1.38%, outperforming the market and falling from the closing high since September 1, which was set by four consecutive days of gains on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 index, which focuses on technology stocks, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology industry constituent stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, both turned upward about half an hour after opening, closing up 0.24% and 0.61% respectively. The former bid farewell to the lows since November 17 caused by Monday's decline, while the latter rebounded after falling for four consecutive days to November 13.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only sectors related to technology stocks closed higher on Tuesday. IT, where Apple and Nvidia are located, rose more than 0.8%, Tesla's non-essential consumer goods rose by more than 0.3%, and Google's communication services rose 0.2%. Among the eight sectors that closed down, energy, which was affected by the continued decline in crude oil, led the decline by 1.7%. Materials also fell by more than 1%, industry by 0.9%, and healthcare by nearly 0.2%, with the smallest decline.

Most of the leading tech stocks have rebounded. Tesla rose more than 4% in early trading, and recovered more than half of its gains in midday trading, closing more than 1.3%, leaving behind the low since November 24, which was set by four days of continuous decline on Monday. Among FAANMG's top six technology stocks, Apple closed up 2.1%, rebounded to a high level since August 2, and the market value rose again to above 3 trillion US dollars; Amazon, which fell 1.4% on Monday, did not continue to be close to the low since November 21, which was refreshed last Thursday; Google's parent company Alphabet, which fell four times in a row on Monday to November 3, closed 1.3%; Microsoft, which had been low since November 13 on Monday, closed 0.9%; and IBM and others, co-founded by IBM, closed up 0.3%. Meta, the Facebook parent company of the AI Alliance, closed down more than 0.5%, falling for five consecutive years to a low level since November 6.

Chip stocks generally continued to decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, both closing down close to 0.6%, breaking new lows since November 13, and falling for two consecutive days. Among individual stocks, Nvidia and Arm rose more than 2% and Qualcomm rose 0.6% at the close, while Applied Materials and Broadcom fell more than 1%, Intel fell 1%, AMD fell more than 0.1%, and Micron Technology fell 0.8%.

Seven major technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, rebounded after four consecutive days of overall decline.

AI concept stocks continued to fall in unison. C3.ai (AI) turned up in early trading in the short term and fell less than 1% after turning down, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell more than 3% in early trading, then in the early trading, and then in the early trading, and the decline in Palantir (PLTR) by more than 1% in early trading, Palantir (PLTR) fell close to 1% after turning up in early trading, and Adobe (ADBE) fell more than 1%. BigBear.ai

The overall decline in popular securities is continuing. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 1.5%, falling for three consecutive days to a closing low since November 1. The Chinese general ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed lower by about 0.6% and 1.6% respectively in early trading. Among the new car builders, NIO Auto, which had lower losses than expected for the third quarter before the market, rose more than 5% in early trading and closed 1.5%, Xiaopeng Motor closed up nearly 0.8%, while Ideal Auto fell nearly 0.5%. Among other stocks, at the close, Land Control fell more than 8%, Tencent Pink List and Good Future fell more than 2%, JD and NetEase fell more than 1%, Station B fell by about 1%, and Alibaba fell nearly 0.9%, Baidu fell 0.1%, while Tiger Tiger rose more than 3%, and Pinduoduo rose more than 0.4%.

The intraday jump in the US dollar index hit a new high in the past two weeks, and Bitcoin rose by more than 3,000 US dollars in intraday time and broke through 43,000 US dollars

The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, fell below 103.60 in early Asian trading and fell close to 0.2% during the day. European stocks both reversed before and during the session. US stocks jumped after US job vacancies were announced in early trading and completely escaped the decline. At the end of early trading, US stocks were at 104.00 for the first time since November 22. Midday trading was close to 104.10, breaking a new high since November 22, rising nearly 0.4% during the day.

By the time the US stock market closed on Tuesday, the US dollar index was slightly below 104.00, up more than 0.2% during the day; the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, had risen more than 0.2% to a high level during the same period on November 22, and the US dollar index continued to rise for two days after stopping at a positive level on the day of Powell's speech last Friday.

Among non-US currencies, EUR/USD fell below 1.0780 in the US stock market and fell more than 0.5% during the day, breaking its low since November 14 for two consecutive days; GBP/USD fell below 1.2580 in the US stock market, breaking its low since November 24, falling 0.4% during the day; the Japanese yen rebounded after falling during the intraday period. USD/JPY fell below 146.60 in early trading, then quickly rose above 147.00 and resumed gains in midday trading. The US stock market closed below 147.20 and fell slightly during the day, falling slightly during the day. It is not close to the low since September 11, which was refreshed on Monday.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose in the short term against the US dollar in early Asian trading and reached a new daily high of 7.1449. The European and American trading session continued to decline. After falling 7.17 in early trading, the US stock market fell to a new daily low of 7.1759 in midday trading. It fell 269 points during the day, and continued to fall below the high since July 27, which was refreshed by 7.12 last week. At 5:59 on December 6, Beijing time, the offshore renminbi was reported at 7.1734 against the US dollar, down 244 points from the last session in New York on Monday, falling for two consecutive days.

After rising more than $2,000 in intraday time on Monday and breaking through the $40,000 mark, Bitcoin (BTC) rose further on Tuesday. After rising above 43,000 US dollars in midday trading, the trading price of some platforms rose above 44,000 US dollars, and the trading price of some platforms rose above 44,000 US dollars for two consecutive days, up more than 3,000 US dollars and nearly 8% from the intraday low before the European stock market. The US stock market closed at 43,000 US dollars, up more than 5% in the last 24 hours.

After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil fell four times in a row and hit a five-month low

International crude oil futures rose more than once on Tuesday, but ultimately failed to rebound successfully. When US stocks hit a new daily low before the market, US WTI crude oil fell below 72.20 US dollars, falling nearly 1.2% during the day, and Brent crude oil fell below 77.20 US dollars, and fell 1.1% during the day. After turning up, US oil hit a new daily high in US stocks in early trading. US oil measured 74.10 US dollars, up nearly 1.5% during the day. Early trading was close to the daily high of 79.09 US dollars set at the beginning of the European stock market, rising 1.3% during the day, and then falling again in midday trading.

In the end, crude oil closed down for four consecutive trading days and has continued to decline since last week's OPEC+ meeting. WTI crude oil futures for January closed down 0.99% to 72.32 US dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil futures for February closed down 1.06% to 77.20 US dollars/barrel, and US oil both hit new closing lows since July 6.

U.S. gasoline and gas futures continued to rise and fall in a mixed manner. NYMEX January gasoline futures, which stopped two consecutive declines on Monday, closed down 1.1% to $2.1103 per gallon, breaking the closing low since November 16 set on Friday; NYMEX January gas futures, which fell sharply by more than 4% on Monday, closed up 0.59% to 2.7100 US dollars/million British thermal units, leaving the low since September 15, which was refreshed on Monday.

Lunkel fell more than 3%, and copper fell back to a two-week low, and gold continued to fall away from historic highs

The market is concerned about Moody's downgrading China's outlook, and London basic metals futures declined across the board on Tuesday. Lun Nickel, which led the decline, fell by more than 3%, approaching the low since late March set last Monday. Lun Tong, Lun Zinc, and Lun Aluminum all fell for two days in a row. Lun Tong fell to a low level in more than two weeks, while Lun Zinc and Lun Aluminum hit new lows in more than a month and three months, respectively. Lun lead fell 11 days in a row, hitting a new low for a month and a half. Lunxi, which has been rising for two days, has fallen to a high level for more than a week.

New York gold futures declined for two days in a row. In early trading on Tuesday, the Asian market was approaching a new daily high of $2,060. US stocks fell completely into decline in early trading and fell below 2030 when they hit a new low in early trading. They fell 0.7% during the day, falling 0.7% during the day, falling from the highest intraday record set by rising above $2150 on Monday.

In the end, COMEX February gold futures closed down 0.29% to $2036.30 per ounce, falling for two consecutive days and continuing to fall from a fresh closing high of $2,090 last Friday.

Spot gold was close to a new daily low of 2010 US dollars in early trading. It fell more than 0.9% during the day, falling from the intraday high set by approaching 2,150 US dollars on Monday.

New York futures have also suffered two consecutive losses. COMEX March silver futures closed down 1.45% to 24.546 US dollars/ounce, continuing to break away from the nearly seven-month high that was refreshed last Friday.

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