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大行评级|富瑞:预期明年香港楼价大致稳定 偏好恒地

Bank Ratings|Jefferies: Hong Kong property prices are expected to be generally stable next year, favoring Henderson Land

Gelonghui Finance ·  Dec 5, 2023 15:28
Glonghui, December 5 | Jefferies published a report stating that Hong Kong's property price index CCL has fallen 5% year to date. Although lower stamp duty has caused a moderate recovery in turnover, high interest rates and slow economic recovery have limited property market performance. Looking ahead to next year, mortgage interest rates are still suppressing buyers' ability to bear, but with demand from specialist programs and household branches, the supply and demand dynamics are relatively healthy. The gradual aging of the first batch of housing estates is also driving a new asset replacement cycle and stimulating demand in the property market. It is expected that property prices will be generally stable next year. I believe that the market estimate for another 10% to 15% is too pessimistic, maintaining a preference for Hengdi because interest rates are defensive and they hold a large amount of farmland reserves and urban renewal projects. The report also pointed out that rent collection shares are growing slowly, demand for reinvestment is increasing, and retail assets are facing competition from neighboring regions; the prospects for office buildings are still difficult. In particular, there is still a large supply in subregions, putting pressure on rents. In rent-taking stock, preference is given to leadership because there is less risk of the company's assets aging.

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