Hot news

• Barclays expects the Fed to cut interest rates four times next year, for a total of 100 basis points

Barclays said in a report: “It is expected that the Federal Reserve will begin an important easing cycle in the second quarter of 2024, cutting interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024, another 100 basis points in 2025, and another 100 basis points in 2026, stabilizing interest rates at 2.75-3%.” This means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates four times next year, by 25 basis points each time.

• Another big news for the Federal Reserve? Some products are now showing signs of deflation!

After experiencing a historic rise in inflation, Americans are now beginning to see something they haven't seen in three years: deflation. Economists say commodity prices may fall further, which will help inflation return to the Fed's 2% target, which may be achieved as early as the second half of next year. Notably, according to data from the US Department of Commerce, prices of durable goods have declined year on year for five consecutive months.

• Goldman Sachs warns US stocks: the market is overpredicting the Fed's interest rate cut

Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner called out to be wary of the rise in US stocks. After the sharp rise in US stocks in November, he threw cold water on the prospects for US stocks to rise further at the end of the year. At the beginning of November, Rubner pointed out that US stocks have “exceeded the scope of compensation from bears,” and he also explained in his recent report that “all capital liquidity that led to the rebound in US stocks in November has now been completely exhausted.” In addition to Rubner's warning, other Goldman Sachs people are already suggesting shortening expectations of sharp interest rate cuts.

• Komo's chief securities strategist: US stocks are at risk next year

Many analysts believe that now is the time to pour into the stock market, hoping that the US economy will avoid a hard landing in 2024 and that the Fed has ended interest rate hikes, but Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Komo's chief global securities strategist, is not among them. “The market is actually digesting a kind of soft landing. Many people are calling for the 'blonde girl' scenario, an economic situation that has the best of both worlds: not too hot and not too cold,” Lakos-Bujas said in an interview. “This is unrealistic.”

Resumption of US stock trading

• The three major US stock indices collectively closed down, and the China Central Index fell more than 2%

The three major US stock indices closed down collectively. The NASDAQ fell 0.84% and fell back to a two-week low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.54%, and the Dow fell 0.11% to stop at four consecutive levels.

Star technology stocks declined collectively. Apple fell 0.95%, Microsoft fell 1.43%, Amazon fell 1.49%, META fell 1.48%, Google-A fell 1.96%, Tesla fell 1.36%, Nvidia fell 2.68%, and Intel fell 3.18%.

Most popular Chinese securities declined, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by more than 2%. NetEase fell by more than 4%, Baidu and JD by more than 2%, and Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, Ideal Auto, and Alibaba by more than 1%. NIO rose more than 2%, while Xiaopeng Motors and iQiyi rose more than 1%.

• Nvidia executives sold 370,000 shares and cashed out a total of 180 million US dollars

According to data compiled by The Washington Service,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Documents filed by executives and directors last month show they have (or plan to) sell approximately 370,000 shares of Nvidia, worth around $180 million. If all of these stocks were eventually sold, this would be the biggest monthly sell-off in dollar value for at least six years. By the close, Nvidia was down nearly 3%.

• First sell-off in two years! Zuckerberg sold 682,000 Meta shares in November

According to table 144 on the SEC's official website, starting November 1, Zuckerberg had to sell 28009 shares without hindrance on every trading day, rain or shine, except for the weekend and Thanksgiving holiday on the 23rd$Meta Platforms (META.US)$stocks. The total number of shares sold has exceeded 600,000, and the liquidated capital has exceeded 180 million US dollars. What is a strong signal is that this is also the first time since November 2021 that the entity managing the Zuckerberg family's wealth has sold Meta shares. By the close, Meta was down more than 1%.

• US court overturns Intel's $2.18 billion tort compensation ruling

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit announced on Monday that it overturned a 2021 Texas court jury ruling$Intel (INTC.US)$A ruling requiring compensation of $2.18 billion to patent technology company VLSI due to patent infringement. The appellate court found that Intel did not infringe on one of the patents involving $675 million in compensation, while the other patent infringement involving $1.5 billion in compensation was still established, but the amount of compensation required a retrial in the Texas court. By the close, Intel was down more than 3%.

• Travel giant Uber is included in the S&P 500 Index

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that travel giants$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$It will be included in the S&P 500 index, and the adjustments will take effect before the market opens on December 18. Analyst Mandeep Singh said, “This establishes Uber's industry-leading position among its gig economy peers.” He added that scale is “the most important thing” for any market, and Uber has proven that it has this in terms of both demand and supply. By the close, Uber was up more than 2%.

• Faraday will establish regional headquarters in the UAE in the future

American Electric Vehicle Company$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$It was announced on its official website that it plans to establish a regional headquarters, production base, and advanced R&D center in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to bring its “generative AI technology and extreme intelligent technology luxury AI trams” to the local intelligent driving car industry cluster (SAVI). As of press release, Faraday is down more than 6% in the future.

• Swiss pharmaceutical giants enter diet pills! Roche's $3.1 billion acquisition

On Monday, Swiss pharmaceutical giants$ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$The statement said it was agreed to acquire diet drug developer Carmot Therapeutics at a price of 3.1 billion US dollars, of which the initial payment is 2.7 billion US dollars. Depending on the specific goals to be achieved in the future, an additional payment of up to 400 million US dollars may be required.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui bought more than HK$200 million from CNOOC and sold off Pharmacology Biotech for nearly HK$600 million

On December 4 (Monday), South China Capital sold a net sale of Hong Kong stocks of HK$695 million.

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$received net purchases of HK$217 million, HK$156 million and HK$137 million respectively;

$WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$,$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Net sales were HK$584 million, HK$572 million and HK$305 million, respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: China Caixin Service Industry PMI, US Markit Service Industry PMI Final Value, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS Job Vacancies; NIO Financial Report

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the US will announce the final value of the Markit service sector PMI for November, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and the JoLTS job vacancies for October; China will announce the November Caixin Services PMI; and Hong Kong, China will announce the November HSBC manufacturing PMI.

In terms of financial reports,$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$/$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Results will be announced after the Hong Kong stock market/before the US stock market on the same day.

NIO's Q3 earnings report will come after the Hong Kong stock market on Tuesday. Analysts expect NIO's revenue for the third quarter of 2023 to be 19.403 billion yuan, an increase of 49.2% over the previous year.

In terms of new shares,$SINOSYNERGY (09663.HK)$,$K CASH (02483.HK)$,$SHENGHUI CLEAN (02521.HK)$They were all listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

Guohong Hydrogen Energy announced that it will raise shares from November 27 to November 30, 2023. The company plans to issue 79.52 million shares, of which 7.952 million shares will be publicly sold and 71.568 million shares will be sold internationally. The issue price per share is HK$19.35-21.35, and 500 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on December 5.

K CASH Group announced that it will issue 125 million shares from November 27 to November 30. The company plans to issue 125 million shares, of which 12.5 million shares will be publicly sold and 112.5 million shares will be sold internationally. The issue price is HK$1.64-1.96 per share, and 2,000 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on December 5.

Shenghui Clean announced that it will issue 414 million shares from November 27 to November 30, 2023. The company plans to issue 414 million shares, including 41,4375 million shares for public sale and 373 million shares for international sale, with an issue price of HK$0.32-0.40 per share and 7,500 shares per lot. It is expected to be listed on December 5.

Niu Niu Chen read:

Don't wrestle with a pig because you'll get your whole body dirty and your partner will enjoy it.

—Charlie Munger

editor/tolk