share_log

富途早报 | 鲍威尔:FOMC将谨慎行事,判断何时宽松为时尚早;美国11月ISM制造业PMI创二十年来最长萎缩周期

Futu Morning Post | Powell: The FOMC will act cautiously; it is too early to judge when to ease; the US ISM manufacturing PMI for November recorded the longest contraction cycle in 20 years

Futu News ·  12/04/2023 08:15

Hot news

  • The “national team” entered the market and increased its holdings in central enterprise ETFs in a big way

On December 1, Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Guoxin, increased its holdings in the China Securities Guoxin Central Enterprise Technology Index Fund on the same day and stated that it will continue to increase its holdings in the future. Recently, some ETF products have received a series of large purchases, drawing attention. Judging from the situation in the past week, ETF fund inflows related to hypermarkets, science and technology innovation boards, and dividends ranked first.

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: The FOMC will act with caution as risks become more balanced

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that if the need for inflation is reduced, the Fed will raise interest rates again; it is too early to speculate when policies may be relaxed; the Fed will “act cautiously” because the risks of insufficient and excessive austerity have become more balanced; the Fed's policy interest rate has “gone deep into the restricted area”; the Fed makes interest rate decisions meeting by meeting based on data; the uncertainty about the economic outlook is “unusually high”; inflation has abated, but core inflation is still too high; we need to see more progress in reducing inflation to 2%.

  • The US ISM manufacturing industry shrank for 13 consecutive months at 46.7 in November, the longest contraction cycle in 20 years

Last Friday, data released by ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index for November was 46.7, which fell short of expectations and contracted for 13 consecutive months, marking the longest contraction cycle in the last 20 years since the outbreak of the Internet bubble crisis.

  • “New Federal Reserve News Agency”: The Fed's interest rate hike may be over, but officials are still “tight-lipped”

Last Friday, December 1, on the eve of Fed Chairman Powell's speech, financial journalist Nick Timiraos, who is regarded as the “mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve” and known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” wrote that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may be over, even though officials are unwilling to make a clear statement. He believes that at the FOMC interest rate meeting to be held from December 12 to 13, the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes for the third time in a row, keeping interest rates at 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. The last time interest rates were raised was in July of this year.

  • Is it just a gamble to cut interest rates and ignore Powell? The bond market has been facing the Fed for a long time!

After the bond market reached a sell-off peak on October 19, Wall Street's views on interest rates changed dramatically. Over the past five weeks, Wall Street has been called “working against the Federal Reserve,” completely ignoring warnings from Powell and other Fed executives, and has bought US bonds one after another, leading to a sharp drop in yield. Quincy Krosby, chief global of wealth management firm LPL Financial, further stated in a report: “After Powell issued a brief and decisive warning at the 2022 Jackson Hole meeting, the market no longer takes the Fed's changing comments so seriously.”

  • After a sharp rise in November, retail investors in US stocks have finally entered the market!

According to data from investment platform eToro and discussions on social media, retail investors are pouring into the most popular stocks on the market, such as Amazon and Nvidia, while also buying riskier stocks, such as unprofitable technology stocks. Jason Goepfert, founder and senior analyst at behavioral finance research firm Sundial Capital Research, recently told the media that after several weeks of economic indicators boosted overall sentiment, retail investors “showed optimism and bought in the midst of a rebound.”

Resumption of US stock trading

  • The three major indices recorded five consecutive weekly levels, and S&P closed at a 20-month high

US stocks continued their gains in November, and the three major indices collectively closed up, recording a good start in December. At the close, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.55% to 14,305.03 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.59% to close at its highest level since March 2022 at 4,594.63 points; and the Dow Jones index rose 0.82% to 36,245.50 points.

Star Tech stocks had mixed ups and downs. Apple rose 0.68%, Microsoft fell 1.16%, Google C fell 0.45%, Amazon rose 0.64%, Nvidia fell 0.01%, Meta fell 0.71%, and Tesla fell 0.52%.

Most of the popular stock markets fell. Xiaopeng Motor fell 5.24%, Good Future by 2.55%, Ideal Auto by 1.76%, NIO by 1.65%, Baidu by 1.59%, Pinduoduo by 1.47%, Alibaba by 1.19%, JD by 0.98%, and Tencent Music by 0.94%.

  • Will the strongest AI be late again? Report: Google Delays Gemini Launch

Last Saturday, The Information quoted two people familiar with the matter as reporting,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$The release of the artificial intelligence model Gemini has been postponed until January 2024. One of the people familiar with the matter said that Google CEO Sundar Pichai recently decided to cancel a series of Gemini events scheduled to be held in California, New York, and Washington next week because it was discovered that it was unable to reliably handle some non-English inquiries.

  • Apple and Paramount are reportedly discussing bundling streaming services

People familiar with the matter revealed,$Apple (AAPL.US)$with$Paramount Global-A (PARAA.US)$/$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US)$It has been discussed that a combination of Paramount+ and Apple TV+ will be offered at a lower price than subscribing to these two services separately. People familiar with the matter said that discussions are still in the early stages, and it is still unclear what form the bundled service will take.

  • Amazon signs SpaceX Falcon 9 contract to launch Kuiper satellite

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$It said that the company signed a contract with SpaceX, a space exploration company owned by Musk, and the other party Falcon 9 will provide three launch missions; SpaceX will support the Kuiper project; and deployment is expected to begin in the first half of 2024.

  • Netflix and other streaming companies are reported to be lobbying the Indian government to revise the broadcasting law

According to people familiar with the matter,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$Viacom18 of India's billionaire Mukesh Ambani and other streaming companies plan to jointly lobby the Indian government to postpone or revise a broadcasting law. India introduced a new draft law regulating the broadcast industry last month, which will also apply to streaming giants. The bill proposes the establishment of a content evaluation committee, composed of members from different social groups, who will review programs before they are released.

  • Walmart says it has stopped advertising on social media platform X

America's largest retailer$Walmart (WMT.US)$It has stopped advertising on social media platform X, becoming the latest major company to do so. “We didn't run ads on X because we found other platforms to better reach our customers,” a Walmart spokesperson told the media. She declined to say when and why this change came into effect.

  • Pfizer's oral diet drug development failed, and there is no hope of turning around in the short term

Last Friday,$Pfizer (PFE.US)$It was announced that it plans to abandon research and development of its experimental diet drug danuglipron (taken orally twice daily). According to Pfizer, a high incidence of adverse reactions has been observed in patients, although most of these side effects are mild and gastrointestinal. In clinical trials, a significant number of patients stopped taking danuglipron due to intolerable side effects (such as nausea and vomiting). By the close, Pfizer was down more than 5%.

Top 20 US stock turnover last Friday

Hong Kong Market Outlook

  • Beishui added Hong Kong stock ETFs to buy more than HK$4.6 billion in Meituan over three days

On December 1 (Friday), South China Capital bought a net purchase of HK$5.289 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$received net purchases of HK$2,081 million, HK$984 million and HK$458 million respectively;

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$Net sales were HK$466 million and HK$139 million, respectively.

It is worth noting that the net purchase of Meituan-W by southbound capital was over HK$4.6 billion for three consecutive days, totaling more than HK$4.6 billion.

Today's attention

Keywords: US durable goods order monthly rate, US factory order monthly rate

On Monday, various economic data were rather lackluster. Investors can simply focus on the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US and the monthly rate of factory orders in October.

In terms of earnings, US stocks$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$Results will be announced after trading on December 4 EST.

In terms of IPOs, US stocks$SolarMax Technology (SMXT.US)$,$Linkage Global Inc. (LGCB.US)$,$Aimei Healthcare Technology Co. Ltd. (AFJKU.US)$It will go on sale on the same day.

webp

Niu Niu Chen read:

If you want to swim fast, harnessing the power of the tide is more effective than paddling with your hands.

—Warren Buffett

editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment