① What is the price trend of lithium carbonate? ② What do you think of the subsequent market?
Financial News Agency, December 1 (Editor Hu Jiarong) Hong Kong lithium battery stocks declined across the board today. As of press release, BYD Electronics (00285.HK), Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK), BYD Electronics (00285.HK), and Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) are down 5.33%, 4%, and 3.01% respectively.
Note: Performance of lithium battery stocks
In terms of news, the price of domestic lithium carbonate futures has continued to decline recently, falling from 154,000 yuan at the beginning of the month to around 100,000 yuan today. Currently, it has continued to hit a new low since listing.
Note: The trend of lithium carbonate futures since listing
Shenyin Wanguo Futures pointed out that, on the one hand, demand for energy storage remains weak; on the other hand, in the power battery sector, cathode material manufacturers are less willing to pick up lithium carbonate, which is in a declining trend, and have a strong wait-and-see sentiment. They mostly pick up goods on long orders, and market transactions continue to be lackluster. It is expected that after November, it may be difficult for domestic lithium carbonate supply to increase significantly.
The continued weakening of lithium prices triggered a downgrade in the rating of the two leading lithium batteries
While the price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, Jefferies published a report. It expects further adjustments in lithium prices in the short term, downgrading the “lithium industry's two leaders” Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from “buying” to “outperforming the market”, and drastically cutting the target prices of both. Among them, Ganfeng's target price was lowered 78% to 17.33 yuan from 79.65 yuan; Tianqi's target price was lowered 59% to 32 yuan.
The bank pointed out that the price of lithium carbonate in mainland China continues to decline, and the price recovery that occurred in the middle of this year was only brief. Demand for batteries in mainland China is still strong, but demand for lithium is affected by the removal of inventory from the supply chain. For example, the inventory cycle of the Ningde Era (300750.SZ) fell from 100 days at the end of last year to 50 to 60 days in the third quarter. It is estimated that the lithium market will experience an oversupply of about 3% from next year to 2027, and supply and demand will balance.
The bank expects that the price of lithium will be further adjusted in the short term, as tight supply conditions ease, and the price of lithium compounds will fall, pushing down the unit price of lithium concentrate until miners tighten supply. It is estimated that the price of lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of next year will drop to 90,000 yuan per ton, with an average annual price of 100,000 yuan per ton. In the long run, there will only be a moderate recovery.