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大行评级|富瑞:将赣锋锂业及天齐锂业评级下调至“跑输大市” 大幅下调目标价及盈测

Bank Ratings|Furui: Downgrading Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium to “outperform the market”, drastically lowering target prices and profit estimates

Gelonghui Finance ·  12/01/2023 10:42
Glonghui, December 1 | Jefferies published a report that expects further adjustments in lithium prices in the short term, downgrading Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium from “buying” to “running out of the market” and drastically cutting the target prices of both. Among them, Ganfeng's target price was lowered 78% from HK$79.65 to HK$17.33; Tianqi's target price was lowered 59% from HK$78 to HK$32. According to the report, the price of lithium carbonate in the mainland plummeted from 500,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 120,000 yuan at the end of November, a drop of 75%. The price recovery that occurred in the middle of this year was only brief. Demand for batteries in mainland China is still strong, but demand for lithium is affected by the removal of inventory from the supply chain. For example, the inventory cycle in the Ningde era fell from 100 days at the end of last year to 50 to 60 days in the third quarter. It is estimated that the lithium market will be oversupplied by about 3% from next year to 2027, with supply and demand trending in balance. The bank expects that the price of lithium will be further adjusted in the short term, as tight supply conditions ease, and the price of lithium compounds will fall, pushing down the unit price of lithium concentrate until miners tighten supply. It is estimated that the price of lithium carbonate will drop to 90,000 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter of next year, with an average price of 100,000 yuan per ton for the whole year. There will only be a moderate recovery in the long run. For the three-year period from this year to 2025, Jefferies will lower Tianqi Lithium's profit forecast by 51%, 28% and 51% respectively; Ganfeng Lithium's profit forecast will be lowered by 69%, 69% and 75% respectively.

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