As a leading manufacturer of nickel powder for MLCCs, Boqian New Materials is actively deploying new energy materials such as silver coated copper powder and nano-silicon powder. As traditional business bottoms out and new business develops rapidly, the “two wings in one” strategy is beginning to take shape.
Nickel powder: MLCC's high-end nickel powder technology barriers are high, and the company's PVD nickel powder technology leads the downstream market for marginal improvement: After several years of weak demand, MLCC supplier shipments have picked up marginally, leading domestic and foreign manufacturers have invested and expanded production, and the market is gradually breaking out of a trough, which is expected to drive the recovery of the upstream nickel powder product market. With the recovery of the downstream consumer electronics market and the opening of the automotive-grade nickel powder market, the company's nickel powder business is expected to recover.
MLCC products are iterating, and the company's technological advantages are becoming more obvious: MLCC continues to develop in the direction of thinning, miniaturization, high capacity, and low cost. The company has the core process of plasma heating gas phase condensation preparation technology under normal pressure. The production equipment required for this process is all designed and assembled by the company itself. The particle size of 80nm nickel powder mass-produced by the company has reached the world's top level and has been successfully applied to Samsung Electric's MLCC production process. At present, the company has obtained 163 patents and is the sole drafting and formulation unit for “Nickel Powder for Capacitors and Electrodes” in China.
Silver coated copper powder: The release of HJT is imminent. Silver coated copper powder is the key to cost reduction, and photovoltaic manufacturers are increasing production of N-type batteries: As the mass production conversion efficiency of P-type batteries approaches the theoretical limit, in order to continue to improve conversion efficiency, photovoltaic manufacturers are deploying N-type batteries one after another.
Cost reduction requirements for HJT batteries: Silver paste accounts for a large share of non-silicon costs in HJT batteries, and silver coated copper powder has replaced silver powder as the main means to reduce costs for HJT batteries. In the first half of 2023, the company's cumulative shipment volume of copper powder in silver has reached more than 3 tons. The next three years are expected to follow the release of HJT production capacity and usher in new growth.
Nano silicon powder: Taking advantage of large cylinders, demand for nanosilicon is expected to grow rapidly, and large cylindrical batteries drive the development of silicon-based anodes: in 2020, Tesla first released 4680 large cylindrical batteries. Silicon anode and electrodeless ear are the technical direction. Silicon-based anodes have the advantage of high energy density, which can effectively increase the energy density of power batteries, and is the direction of future iteration of lithium battery anodes.
The company's nanosilicon production line has been launched: The company is a domestic enterprise that uses PVD technology to mass-produce high-end metal powder materials for electronics, and has extensive technical experience in the field of metal powders. At present, the company's nano silicon powder is in the pilot phase. It is expected that project construction and trial production will be completed by the end of 2023.
Investment advice:
It is estimated that the company's net profit for 2023/2024/2025 will be 0.30/1.54/248 million yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 256x/50x/31x, covering the first time, a “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning:
Demand in the downstream market fell short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuated beyond expectations, there were breakthroughs in competitive technology, product price reductions exceeded expectations, and production capacity expansion fell short of expectations.