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碳酸锂期货跌破纪录低位!现货交易冷清 明年价格10万以下?

Lithium carbonate futures fell below record lows! Will spot trading clear the price below 100,000 next year?

cls.cn ·  11/29/2023 22:48

① Lithium carbonate futures “continue to fall”. Lithium carbonate futures LC2401 closed at 10,8850 yuan/ton today, continuing to hit a new low since listing. The average price of spot electricity and carbon was reported at 134,000 yuan/ton, a new low this year. ② This pessimistic trend may continue. According to Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, predicts that lithium carbonate may drop 100,000 yuan/ton in the second half of next year.

Financial News Agency, November 29 (Reporters Zeng Chuchu, Li Zijian) Lithium carbonate futures “continue to fall.” The lithium carbonate futures LC2401 closed today at 10,8850 yuan/ton, a new low since listing. The average price of spot electricity and carbon was reported at 134,000 yuan/ton, a new low this year. This decline may continue. According to Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, predicted that lithium carbonate may fall to 100,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2024.

Today, the main contract for lithium carbonate fell below the 110,000 yuan/ton mark and fell nearly 4% during the day, continuing to hit a new low since listing. As of today's close, the main contract for lithium carbonate 2401 was open at 113,200 yuan/ton, closing at 109.85 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85%, with a turnover of 7,60,339 lots and a position volume of 13,9951 lots, an increase of 17,155 lots over the previous trading day.

Since the launch of lithium carbonate futures in July, compared with the listing benchmark price of 246,000 yuan/ton, it has plummeted 55% in just 4 months. This year, a number of listed companies have issued announcements that they intend to launch lithium carbonate futures hedging business and apply for a designated lithium carbonate delivery depot in Guangzhou.

In terms of spot prices, data released by the Shanghai Steel Union showed that battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 2,000 yuan/ton today, with an average price of 134,000 yuan/ton. Previously, lithium carbonate remained around 160,000-180,000 yuan/ton for a long time. It has been declining continuously since mid-late November, down 21.6% from 171,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Regarding fluctuations in spot prices, Shanghai Steel Union lithium industry analyst Zheng Xiaoqiang told the Finance Association reporter that the spot price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall recently. The main reason is that the current supply of lithium carbonate in the market is relatively relaxed due to high imports of lithium salt and lithium ore from overseas, and the overall performance is relatively relaxed, while downstream lithium battery and material manufacturers consume less and demand is weak.

Recently, there are market rumors that Lanke Lithium is releasing 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The settlement price benchmark is calculated based on the average price from November 28 to December 25, and a certain discount is given based on the purchase volume. Some industry sources confirmed the veracity of this news to the Financial Services Association reporter.

However, market transactions are still deserted. According to the latest analysis by Longzhong News, spot supply consumption is slow. Only a few downstream manufacturers purchase as needed, and there are few large orders in the market. Furthermore, the price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, suppressing the mentality of the industry, and bearish sentiment envelops the market.

Zheng Xiaoqiang also told the Financial News Agency reporter that spot transactions have been poor recently. Only orders that are extremely needed will be purchased. Most of the material factories are in contract operation. This situation is also due to poor downstream demand, few orders from battery companies, and high inventories of finished battery products, so the rate of lithium carbonate consumption has been greatly reduced.

A reporter from the Financial Association recently exchanged information with a number of people in the lithium industry and learned that currently the industry's judgment on next year's lithium price is 80,000-120,000 yuan/ton.

Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, predicted that if we look at the first half of 2024, (the price of lithium salt) should be 100,000 to 150,000 yuan/ton, and it may fall by 100,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.

Zheng Xiaoqiang analyzed that under the condition of steady growth in demand, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 yuan/ton in 2024. According to the current production capacity, the global production capacity of lithium carbonate with a comprehensive cost price of less than 100,000 yuan/ton in 2024 is about 600,000 tons, and the production capacity below 80,000 yuan/ton is about 400,000 tons, which can basically meet next year's downstream demand.

As the price of lithium carbonate falls, recently, questions from investors about the development of lithium carbonate hedging business have also emerged on public interactive platforms for lithium salt companies. Among them, Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, the “two leaders of the lithium industry”, recently stated on an interactive platform that the company has not yet carried out hedging business on lithium carbonate futures.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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