前述业内人士告诉财联社记者，除北半球冬季为市场旺季因素外，成品油轮的供需情况相对紧张，容易受外界因素影响导致运价快速攀升。巴拿马运河堵塞导致有效运力有所减少，就推涨了大西洋航线成品油轮运价。① On November 28, the equivalent rental rent (TCE) of the MR product tanker's Atlantic regional route reached 59,900 US dollars/day, the highest point since this year; ② China Southern Petroleum recently announced the rental of 5 MR ships. Currently, China Southern Oil has 36 foreign trade MR tankers and 10 COSCO Marine; ③ According to the industry, the tension in the capacity of refined tankers in the Atlantic region is expected to spread to the Asia-Pacific region.
Financial News Agency, November 29 (Reporter Hu Haoqiong) As winter enters, the finished tanker market is also entering a peak season. Catalyzed by the Panama Canal blockage incident, not only are BDI and BCI booming, but recently, prices for finished tankers in the Atlantic region have also risen rapidly. Some industry insiders told the Financial Services Association reporter that the strained capacity of finished tankers in the Atlantic region is likely to spread to the Asia-Pacific region in the future.
According to data from the Baltic Sea Exchange, on November 28, the equivalent rental rent (TCE) of the MR product tanker's Atlantic regional route reached 59,900 US dollars/day, the highest point since this year.
The aforementioned industry insider told the Financial Services Association reporter that in addition to the fact that winter in the northern hemisphere is the peak market season, the supply and demand situation for finished tankers is relatively tight, and it is easy to be affected by external factors, causing freight prices to rise rapidly. Effective capacity has been reduced due to the blockage of the Panama Canal, which has boosted freight prices for finished tankers on the Atlantic route.
Against the backdrop of rising freight charges, China Merchants Nanyou (601975.SH), a major domestic tanker owner, announced a few days ago that its subsidiaries will rent no more than 5 MR ships to optimize the capacity structure of the company's refined tanker fleet. A financial news agency reporter learned from people familiar with the matter that up to now, China Merchants Southern Petroleum has 36 foreign trade MR finished tankers (excluding the 5 ships mentioned above), and COSCO Marine (600026.SH) has 10.
However, the performance of the Pacific route is not optimistic. Judging from recent freight performance, there is a downward trend. On November 28, the equivalent rental rent (TCE) for the MR product tanker Pacific regional route was 17,300 US dollars/day. According to CITIC Futures, domestic export quotas in the Pacific region have basically been exhausted, so there has been no significant improvement in freight rates.
As to whether the current increase in freight rates on the Atlantic route is sustainable, some analysts told the Financial Services Association reporter that from the demand side, since demand for refined oil products has picked up but is still weak, and the profit from cracking is also relatively average, the increase in freight prices on the Atlantic route may not continue for a long time. However, judging from the overall historical cycle of the finished tanker market, the current freight revenue for the MR Atlantic route is already at a high point.
A reporter from the Financial Association News Agency learned that excluding the same period of the year, affected by news of the “EU bans imports of Russian petroleum products on February 5, 2023” ban on imports of diesel from many places to supplement inventories, and combined cracking profits remained high. Freight revenue for MR-type finished tankers on the Atlantic region reached over 75,000 US dollars/day. In recent years, for example, in 2021 and 2019, freight revenue for the same period in 2021 and 2019 was around 10,000 to 30,000 US dollars/day. The same period in 2020 was basically in the range of 3,000 to 8,000 US dollars/day (reaching a high point of over 875,000 US dollars/day in April only).
MR route freight revenue (left axis unit: USD/day; source: Clarkson)
However, the aforementioned industry insider said that although domestic demand for refined oil products, especially diesel, is currently weak, there are phased changes in pyrolysis prices, that is, there are regional differences, such as when European pyrolysis prices are relatively high, the Middle East, the US, and even the Far East may drive transportation demand through trade arbitrage. However, in the long run, the number of refineries in Europe and the US is declining, and almost all of the new refining energy is in the Far East (China, Southeast Asia) and the Middle East. As a result, overall trade volume and transportation have increased, and demand is somewhat sustainable.