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BDI再刷年内新高!铁矿石补库或催化运价进一步上涨 大西洋市场成交意愿强需求端乐观|行业动态

BDI hits a new high this year! Iron ore to fill stocks or catalytic freight prices rise further, Atlantic market is more willing to trade, and demand is optimistic | Industry News

cls.cn ·  Nov 28, 2023 11:18

① The BDI index reported 2259 points, a new high during the year, up 7.47% from the previous reporting period; ② The industry claims that the Atlantic regional market speculates that tenants may be “covering the market” and is optimistic about the demand side; ③ Iron ore is expected to enter an inventory replenishment cycle to drive freight prices further, and the release of financial attributes at the end of the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to help BDI rise.

Financial News Agency, November 28 (Reporter Hu Haoqiong) The BDI index hit a new high during the year. This is also the first time since June 28, 2022 that the BDI index has reached 2,200 points. Some industry insiders told the Financial News Agency reporter that this development was to be expected. Although demand for coal in the Cape of Hope ship market was mediocre on the Pacific route, the three major shippers of Australian iron ore experienced a long-lost “full boom” situation last weekend, catalyzing a further increase in market confidence.

Yesterday, the Baltic Sea Dry Bulk Shipping Index (BDI) was updated to 2259 points, an increase of 7.47% over the previous reporting period. Among them, the Baltic Sea Cape of Good Hope Bulk Carrier Price Index (BCI) reported 3,819 points, an increase of 434 points over the previous reporting period, and BCI 5TC reported 31671 US dollars/day. This value also surpassed the annual high set on October 17 this year.

In addition to this, the freight index for other ship types has also risen one after another. According to data from the Baltic Sea Exchange, as of press release, the Baltic Sea Panamanian Bulk Carrier Price Index (BPI) reported 2095 points, up 31 points from the previous reporting period; the Baltic Sea Super Portable Bulk Carrier Price Index (BSI) reported 1,292 points, up 13 points from the previous reporting period; and the Baltic Sea Portable Bulk Carrier Price Index (BHI) reported 680 points, up 10 points from the previous reporting period.

Southwest Securities trading industry researchers have determined that at present, iron ore stocks are in the final stage of removal, and subsequent iron ore inventories are expected to fluctuate upward and enter a new round of replenishment cycles, leading to a further increase in freight rates. Meanwhile, the release of financial attributes at the end of the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to help BDI rise.

Judging from the specific freight performance of iron ore, the aforementioned industry insider said that on the Pacific (Western Australia) short-haul route, BCI-C5 rose all the way, recording 11.02 US dollars/ton on November 24 (up 7.58% from November 17), and 11.78 US dollars/ton on November 27.

“It is worth mentioning that in the Atlantic region, Vale (Vale) returns to the market for rent on the long route, and Brazil installs futures in the middle of the month. The market speculates that tenants are still “covering the market” and continues to be optimistic about the demand side. Coupled with the strong desire for pallet transactions on the transatlantic route, dry bulk FFA buying continues to push up TCE, and the Brazilian long-distance route BCI-C3 transactions are at the level of 25.9-26.97 US dollars/ton.” The aforementioned industry insider further stated.

At the level of A-share listed companies, the bulk carrier owner China Merchants Shipping (601872.SH) seems to have anticipated it for a long time. In the board resolution announcement at the end of October, the company announced that shipyards under China Merchants Industries, the related party would order multi-type dry bulk carriers with earlier delivery times and higher configurations. At the same time, it was announced that the company's name was changed, with the intention of oil and gas, dry transportation and medium- to long-term strategic development vision; China Aviation Ocean (833171.BJ), the first stock of shipping on the Beijing Stock Exchange, stated in investor relations activities that 2024 (dry bulk shipping market) Further improvement, there is an improvement in the dry bulk shipping cycle Elasticity.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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