A number of agencies said that the global supply and demand of lithium carbonate will be nearly 200,000 tons next year. Under pessimism, lithium carbonate futures are likely to fall below the 100,000 yuan/ton mark.
The main force of lithium carbonate fell to a close yesterday, and continued to decline by more than 4% at the opening of today's market. Battery manufacturers still have a backlog of inventory, and production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, which to a certain extent has encouraged battery manufacturers to go out of storage, while lithium salt factories are passively accumulating stocks.
According to several agencies, there will be an excess of nearly 200,000 tons of global lithium carbonate supply and demand next year. Under pessimism, lithium carbonate futures are likely to fall below the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and even fall to 80,000 yuan/ton before entering a new upward cycle of the industry. Some lithium salt companies that had previously been discontinued or overhauled gradually resumed normal production in early November, and there is still a possibility that some salt lake companies will release goods in the future. Downstream cathode materials companies have no idea of picking up goods through loose orders. Short-term imbalances in spot supply and demand have led to an accelerated decline in prices. Total inventories rebounded to 63,400 tons last week, downstream inventories remained basically the same, and smelter inventories increased to 40,000 tons. Overall, there was a slight surplus.
How can institutions interpret the subsequent trend of lithium carbonate futures?
Everbright Futures: The overall approach is still biased, beware of financial and emotional disturbances
On the supply side, it is reported that production of some OEM workers has been cut due to reduced orders and profit issues, and weekly production has weakened from month to month. Furthermore, it is reported that some major manufacturers are willing to release goods. At the same time, mine-side prices continued to fall. According to reports, the transaction price of a small amount of ore may be around 1,500 US dollars/ton. Low-cost mines have arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the cost curve has declined. Australian mine shipments, lithium mine port inventories, and Chilean lithium salt shipments all increased month-on-month, and supply on the resource side is abundant. On the demand side, there are still no bright spots. Sales of terminal new energy vehicles have slowed month-on-month, and cathode factory production schedules may still weaken month-on-month. As of November 23, in terms of inventory, overall inventory volume continued to increase month-on-month. Downstream inventory was digested, but purchase/stocking intentions may decline further. From a fundamental point of view, supply has declined due to marginal changes, yet demand remains weak, and there is a trend of further tightening of inventories downstream. At the same time, market concerns about delivery issues have declined. Overall, it is still viewed in a biased way of thinking, beware of capital and emotional disturbances. The future market suggests paying attention to spot trends and continuing to pay attention to positions.
Huatai Futures: Market conditions will be affected by capital and macro sentiment, so it is recommended to focus on range-bound operations
Overall, the price decline cycle, battery manufacturers' product inventories were suppressed, and subsequent production schedules were reduced, and downstream cathode materials and battery production in the fourth quarter were mainly for terminal consumption in the first quarter. Consumption of new energy vehicles and energy storage in the first quarter was in a low season, so consumer support weakened. Competition for new energy vehicles is intense, and cost reduction and price reduction continues. Combined with long-term supply easing, supply-side pressure is high, and competitive pressure on the industry is increasing. For self-owned mining producers and mine-side trading enterprises, they can choose an opportunity to sell and hedge on the market. For speculators, judging from short-term trading, futures prices are currently fluctuating in a wide range, but the market will be affected by capital and macro sentiment, etc., and there may be large fluctuations, so it is recommended that range operations be the main focus.
Minmetals Futures: Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals, spot prices continue to operate weakly under pressure, and may bottom out the integrated cost of lepidolite
Lithium carbonate spot continued to decline yesterday. The price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate was 129000-142,000 yuan. The average price was -2,500 yuan on the previous working day, up or down -1.81% on the same day. The price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 119,000-132,000 yuan, with an average price of -2,500 yuan compared to the previous day. The lithium carbonate futures contract plummeted on the same day. The LC2401 contract closing price was 11,6650 yuan, -5.97% compared to the previous day's closing price. The closing price of the main contract was discounted to 18,850 yuan. The price of SC6 lithium concentrate imported by SMM from overseas was 1,590-2110 US dollars/ton, with an average price of -1.33% compared to the previous day. Supply easing on the mining side has been implemented, profits from outsourced mining and smelting have deteriorated, some companies have once again cut production, and weekly lithium carbonate production has declined sequentially. Lithium carbonate stocks remain high, and lithium salt holders cut prices and drop goods. Currently, the peak season for battery material production is over, demand for lithium carbonate is declining, and downstream stocking is mainly based on long-term cooperation. The profits of cost-side mining companies are fair, and mineral prices are expected to continue to decline in the future. Against the backdrop of weak fundamentals, spot prices continue to be under weak operation, which may lead to bottoming out the integrated cost of lepidolite. The short-term focus is on the long and short market game, the supply of lithium ore in Africa, the scale of actual production cuts on the supply side, and marginal changes in demand for battery materials.
Ping An Futures: Pessimism dominates, and the path to the bottom of lithium carbonate is long and difficult
Currently, the price of lithium carbonate futures continues to decline, the terminal demand market is weak, and battery and battery factory inventories are high. Cathode materials manufacturers mostly use sales to determine production, which is transmitted at various levels along the industrial chain. The market is buying up rather than buying or falling, and price pressure is heavy, mostly on consumable raw material inventories and long-term raw materials. Short-term demand is still an important factor affecting price trends, and industry inventories are high, mine-side costs are falling, pessimism dominates, and the path to bottom of lithium carbonate is long.