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安信证券:生猪消费端支撑较弱 关注产能去化

Anxin Securities: Pig consumer side support is weak, focus on removal of production capacity

Zhitong Finance ·  11/27/2023 21:31

Pig prices are picking up seasonally, but support from the consumer side is weak, and the removal of production capacity will continue.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Anxin Securities published a research report saying that pig prices are picking up seasonally but consumer support is weak, and production capacity will continue to be reduced. There has been a slight seasonal recovery in pig prices recently, but there is no obvious favorable support in the consumer market in the short term. The south has yet to reach a suitable temperature for pickling. On the breeding side, due to repayment pressure and swine disease at the end of the year, there is a sell-off in some regions. It is expected that pig prices or consolidation will be the main focus in the short term; it is expected that capital return in the fourth quarter will be limited, and production capacity removal will continue.

The main views of Anxin Securities are as follows:

Pig breeding: support on the pig consumer side is weak, and the removal of production capacity will continue

Price side: Pig prices are picking up, and piglet prices continue to rise. The average price of pigs this week was 14.83 yuan/kg, +3.20% over the week, +0.30% over the previous week; the price of piglets was 291 yuan/head, +14.57% over the week, and +11.28% over the two weeks. According to Wind data, the wholesale price of pork this week was 20.17 yuan/kg, -0.77% over the previous week.

Supply side: The average number of pigs slaughtered this week was 168,400 heads per day, +1.14% over the week.

Zhou's opinion: Pig prices are picking up seasonally, but support from the consumer side is weak, and the removal of production capacity will continue. There has been a slight seasonal recovery in pig prices recently, but there is no obvious favorable support in the consumer market in the short term. The south has yet to reach a suitable temperature for pickling. On the breeding side, due to repayment pressure and swine disease at the end of the year, there is a sell-off in some regions. It is expected that pig prices or consolidation will be the main focus in the short term; it is expected that capital return in the fourth quarter will be limited, and production capacity removal will continue.

Poultry farming: the price of chicken shoots and chickens fluctuates downward, and the overall performance is stable

Zhou's opinion: Prices of chicken seedlings and chicken have fluctuated and adjusted this week. Chicken: The supply side has been tightened, but there has been no significant improvement on the consumer side. It is expected that the price of hairy chicken will fluctuate mainly in the future. Chicken seedlings: It is difficult for the price of hairy chickens to go up. Farmers are generally motivated to fill in the columns. The overall sentiment is still weak. Seedling prices have not risen or fallen much, and adjustments have mainly been made in the short term. Overall, the bank believes that the short-term supply of chicken seedlings may be declining, but the price of restricted chicken is low, and the upward trend is blocked. As backward production capacity is gradually phased out, the bank expects the white feather broiler industry to begin an upward cycle in 2024Q1.

Planting sector: Moderate El Niño has formed in the country, focusing on the effects of extreme weather.

A moderate El Niño has already formed in our country, and this winter's temperature may be close to the same period of the year or be too high in most regions of the country. Effects on agricultural production in China: 1) Warm weather may cause low soil moisture conditions, affect crop emergence and growth, which is not conducive to spring farming and sowing next year; delays in the beginning of winter may affect crop growth seasons and cycles, which is not conducive to agricultural production plans and yields. 2) It is easy to cause crops to grow excessively and is conducive to the wintering and breeding of pests and diseases. Severe winter rain and snow disasters and the risk of pests and diseases will increase in the coming year. 3) The entry of winter in many provinces has been delayed by about 5 days this year, and the “late winter” will also affect the ecosystem. Warm weather may trigger a phenological “ecological imbalance.”

Investment advice:

Breeding sector: Pig farming suggests focusing on [Superstar Farming (603477.SH)], [Xinwufeng (600975.SH)], [Wen's Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ)], [Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ)], [Shennong Group ()], [Huatong Co., Ltd. (002840.SZ)], and [Jingji Zhinong (000048.SZ)]. 605296.SH

White feather chicken sector: It is recommended to focus on [Shengnong Development (002299.SZ)] and [Minhe Co., Ltd. (002234.SZ)].

Planting sector: It is recommended to focus on [Longping Hi-Tech (000998.SZ)], [Dabeinong (002385.SZ)], and [Quanyin Hi-Tech (300087.SZ)].

Risk warning: epidemic risk in the aquaculture industry; risk of market fluctuations in agricultural products; risk of natural disasters.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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