We maintain "Buy" investment rating for CGN Mining (the "Company"), and raise target price to HK$1.85, representing 21.0x, 13.7x and 12.6x 2023-2025 PER.

We expect uranium price to grow steadily due to strong fundamentals and to lift the profitability of the Company. Supply-demand fundamentals of uranium are expected to remain strong in the long term. Global uranium demand is expected to grow steadily, while growth of global uranium supply is expected to be limited. We believe such situation to last through 2024-2025, which will strongly support uranium price. We expect uranium price to be lifted to the level of about US$50/lb-US$80/lb in 2024, which will significantly improve profitability of uranium mining companies.

Mined uranium output of CGN Mining may record faster growth rate if uranium price surges. There is a possibility that Kazatomprom may lift the utilization rate of Semizbay-U and Ortalyk if uranium price surges; we believe that this has been neglected by most investors.

Catalysts: Rise in uranium price; nuclear-derived electricity development plans.

Risks: Nuclear power plant safety issues; fall in uranium price; change in mining investment policies in Kazakhstan.