The company has not adjusted its annual guidelines, and low-speed operations may continue until next year. In the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved revenue of approximately RMB 2,519 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; net loss of approximately RMB 421 million (net loss of RMB 340 million in the third quarter of 2022); and adjusted EBITDA of approximately RMB 1,126 million, up 5.6% year on year.
As of the first three quarters of 2023, the company's total area contracted and pre-contracted by customers was 653,732 square meters, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year; the operating area was 554,210 square meters, an increase of 8.6% over the previous year; and the area under construction was 189,585 square meters. The contract rate for the company's operating area is 91.9%, the pre-contract rate for the area under construction is 76.1%, and the billing rate for the operating area is 71.9%.
The company has not adjusted its full-year guidelines. Total revenue for 2023 is expected to be between RMB 99.40 billion and RMB 10.320 billion; the adjusted EBITDA is between RMB 4.430 billion and RMB 4.60 billion.
Investment advice. We forecast that the company's revenue for 2023-2025 will be 101.18 (unadjusted) /111.3 (-2.7%) /128.00 (-2.7%) billion yuan, respectively. The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2023-2025 was 45.89 (+1.4%) /50.38 (-1.6%) /57.85 (-2.2%) billion yuan, respectively. According to comparable company statistics, the average EV/EBITDA in 2023 was 15 times, and the EV/EBITDA of the two leading IDC companies in the US was 23 times and 20 times, respectively. Considering factors such as the company's industry position, industry supply and demand relationship, performance growth rate, etc., and referring to two US benchmarking companies, we gave Universal Data 15 times EV/EBITDA (unadjusted) in 2023, then the corresponding target market value was RMB 30.539 billion. Based on the total share capital of 1,5244.3 billion yuan, the target price was 20.03 (-9.2%) yuan/share (corresponding to HK$21.87 per share), maintaining the “superior market” rating.
Risk warning. Affected by the slowdown in overall industry growth, the company's data center listing rate did not meet expectations, affecting revenue growth, which in turn affected the company's EBITDA level; the company's overseas expansion had unexpected events, leading to risks such as increased costs and reduced profitability.