It was covered for the first time, and a rating of increase in holdings was given. The company is deeply involved in the insulin field. As collection is exchanged for price for volume and import substitution accelerates, core products have been declared for listing in Europe and the US one after another, opening up a second growth curve. EPS for 2023-2025 is 0.60/1.10/2.00 yuan, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2025 target PE 30X was given, corresponding to the target price of 60.03 yuan. It was covered for the first time, and a rating of increase in holdings was given.
Domestic and overseas markets are blooming in unison, and the market space is vast. Ganli Pharmaceutical is the leading insulin industry in China. In 2022, its performance was under short-term pressure due to factors such as collection price cuts and channel compensation; from 2023, performance is expected to return to a rapid growth trajectory, boosted by factors such as import substitution and new product volume.
Furthermore, the company's insulin drug products are leading overseas, and many products are in the marketing review stage in the US and Europe. Joining forces with Sandoz is expected to open up huge market space.
The US insulin price system has been reshaped, and the market has ushered in a window period. The high price of insulin over a long period of time has become an important social issue in the US. Driven by a government bill, US insulin experienced a sharp price reduction in 2023. The previously formed pharmaceutical company-PBM-insurance sector value chain system is expected to be reshaped, providing market opportunities for new entrants. The company's partner Sandox, which is responsible for overseas commercial operations, is a leading global generic drug and biosimilar company, and is expected to break through in developed markets.
catalysts. Domestic sales of core insulin products and promotion of overseas commercialization exceeded expectations; progress in new drug development exceeded expectations
Risk warning. R&D progress falls short of expectations, product sales promotion falls short of expectations, European and American drug reviews progress falls short of expectations, collection and price reduction risks