光库科技(300620):Q3毛利率同环比改善 看好薄膜铌酸锂产业化趋势

Guangku Technology (300620): Q3 gross margin improved month-on-month, optimistic about the industrialization trend of thin-film lithium niobate

海通證券 ·  11/23/2023

Event: Guangku Technology released its 2023 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 23 years, the company's revenue was 524 million yuan, up 6.11% year on year, net profit was 47 million yuan, down 48.11%, gross profit margin was 34.88%, down 1.72 pcts year on year; 23Q3 single quarter revenue was 185 million yuan, up 3.63% year on year, net profit margin was 15 million yuan, down 53.34% year on year, gross profit margin was 37.08%, up 1.79 pcts year on year, and 3.38 pcts month on month.

Expenses are well controlled, and R&D investment is increasing rapidly. 23Q3 R&D expenses were 34.6 million yuan, +34.49% year over year, R&D cost rate 18.67%, year over year +4.28 pcts; sales expense ratio 1.95%, year over year +0.27pcts; management expenses rate 11.04%, year over year +0.98 pcts; financial expenses rate 0.30%, year over year +5.18 pcts.

The company's R&D investment grew rapidly, mainly due to the company's increased investment in research and development of new products and processes, such as thin-film lithium niobate high-speed modulator chips and devices, autonomous vehicle lidar light source modules, etc., and the year-on-year increase in R&D personnel remuneration and equipment depreciation. Operating cash flow in 23Q3 was 24.81 million yuan, up -12.94% year on year; inventory at the end of Q3 was 246 million yuan, +6.19% year on year, and contract liabilities were 15.33 million yuan, +100.83% year on year.

Thin-film lithium niobate is poised to develop, and lidar is expected to open a second growth curve. In the field of lithium niobate modulators, the company is focusing on developing 800Gbps and above thin-film lithium niobate coherent and non-coherent modulator products. In the next few years, it will launch thin-film lithium niobate high-speed modulators and module series products, with transmission rates of 800Gbps or more to 1.6Tbps; in September 2023, the company released a 128GB thin-film lithium niobate coherent driver modulator and 800Gb DR8 thin-film lithium niobate modulator chip with leading performance; In the field of lidar, the company provides leading performance to many domestic and foreign lidar companies 1550nm lidar has a full range of optical fiber components, and has independently developed a 1550nm emission light source module based on an erbium-ytb co-doped fiber amplifier. We believe that the continued expansion of the thin-film lithium niobate and lidar business is expected to bring the company a second growth curve.

Profit forecast. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 725 million yuan, 1,136 million yuan, and 1,512 million yuan respectively; net profit of the mother will be 78 million yuan, 203 million yuan, and 272 million yuan respectively; and EPS will be 0.32 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.11 yuan respectively. We believe that as a thin-film lithium niobate leader, Guangku Technology has broad development prospects. Considering that the company's thin-film lithium niobate technology is in a leading position in the world, there is broad scope for future applications; the lidar business layout is accelerating, and the company's performance is expected to enter a period of accelerated growth next year. Referring to the average valuation level of comparable companies, the company was given a dynamic PE range of 55-65X in 2024, corresponding to the reasonable value range of 45.65-53.95 yuan, a “superior to the market” rating.

Risk warning. The boom in the laser industry fell short of expectations, price competition for optical communication devices exceeded expectations, and the progress of lithium niobate business fell short of expectations.

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