原料价格回落&数字化提效，盈利水平持续提升。公司2023 年前三季度毛利率同比+5.22pct 至39.14%，预计主要在于原料价格回落、公司自身数字化变革提质增效以及产品结构优化；期间费用率方面，公司2023年前三季度销售/管理及研发/财务费用率分别同比+2.07/-0.42/-0.78pct至17.92%/8.85%/-1.58 %，综合影响下，前三季度净利率同比+2.35pct 至12.04%。单季度来看，公司2023Q3 单季度毛利率40.84%（同比+3.57pct，环比+1.64pct），净利率13.33%（同比+1.56pct，环比-1.56pct），公司整体盈利能力同比持续改善。Events: The company released its 2023 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 5.514 billion yuan, +5.92% year-on-year; net profit of 659 million yuan, +30.16% year-on-year; net profit of 565 million yuan, +48.11% year-on-year.
Comment:
Q3 Revenue grew steadily, and increased quality and efficiency led to high profit growth. Looking at the single quarter, 2023Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved revenue of 1,503/20.41/1,970 billion yuan, +3.27%/+7.24%/+6.66%, respectively; achieved net profit of 0.98/2.99/262 billion yuan, a year-on-year difference of +47.79%/+33.61%/+21.20%, respectively. Q3 continued the operating trend in the first half of the year, and revenue growth was steady. The profit side is expected to continue to increase in the context of the low base in the same period last year and the company's own digital transformation and efficiency improvement. With the improvement of capabilities, the company is expected to continue to operate steadily.
Raw material prices have declined & digital efficiency has improved, and profit levels have continued to rise. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2023 was +5.22pct to 39.14%, mainly due to falling raw material prices, the company's own digital transformation to improve quality and efficiency, and product structure optimization. In terms of period expenses, the company's sales/management and R&D/financial expenses for the first three quarters of 2023 were +2.07/-0.42/-0.78pct to 17.92%/8.85%/-1.58%, respectively. Under the comprehensive influence, net profit margin for the first three quarters was +2.35pct to 12.04%. Looking at a single quarter, the company's gross profit margin for the 2023Q3 single quarter was 40.84% (year-on-year +3.57pct, +1.64pct), net profit margin 13.33% (year-on-year +1.56pct, month-on-month), and the company's overall profitability continued to improve year-on-year.
Operating cash flow conditions are good, and operating efficiency has improved. The company's net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1,042 billion yuan (-43 million yuan in the same period last year), mainly due to a decrease in the company's cash from purchasing products and receiving labor payments in the current period. The revenue ratio increased by 3.34 pct to 111.10% over the same period, and the operating cash flow situation was good. In the first three quarters of 2023, the number of accounts receivable of the company increased by 6.17 days to 32.11 days, and the number of inventory turnover days decreased by 13.49 days to 48.85 days, improving operational efficiency.
Investment suggestions: As a leading enterprise in the lighting and electrical industry in China, the company continues to deepen its internal skills in the context of consumption recovery and pressure. The operating capacity of the entire value chain continues to deepen. At the same time, overseas business is steadily expanding, and global competitiveness continues to improve. Taking into account the current pace of China's consumption recovery, the progress of real estate sales completion, and the effectiveness of the company's digital reforms, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. The estimated net profit of the company in 2023-2025 was 9.43/10.98/1,231 billion yuan (original forecast value was 9.01/10.14/1,130 billion yuan), corresponding to the current market value of PE, 15/13/11 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downside risks in real estate sales, consumption recovery falling short of expectations, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.
