华统股份(002840)公司简评报告:养殖成本改善明显 生猪出栏快速增长

Huatong Co., Ltd. (002840) Company Brief Review Report: Breeding Costs Have Improved Significantly, Pigs Are Growing Rapidly

首創證券 ·  11/22/2023

The company released a pig sales briefing. In October 2023, the company's pig sales volume was 184,200 heads, +6.46%, +53.60%; the company's pig sales revenue was 347 million yuan, -6.19% over the previous year, +22.68%; the average sales price of commercial pigs was 15.32 yuan/kg, -7.15% month-on-month.

Farming costs have improved markedly, and there is still room for decline in the future. The company's pig breeding costs showed a downward trend throughout the year. At the end of '22, the full cost was around 18 yuan/kg, the full cost of 23Q1 was around 17.8 yuan/kg, and the full cost of 23Q3 had been reduced to 16-17 yuan/kg. In terms of production indicators, the company's pig breeding PSY is between 24-25, the meat to meat ratio is about 2.7, and the overall survival rate is about 87-88%. Subsequent breeding costs are expected to continue to improve, mainly reflected in several aspects: 1) Eliminate and build breeding systems in a timely manner, improve the quality and performance of pig breeding groups, and improve sow breeding performance; 2) improve breeding technology and management level to reduce feed costs and meat ratio; 3) strengthen incentives and management, and do a good job in biosafety prevention and control.

The pig market is expected to continue to grow rapidly. The company is a double leading “breeding+slaughter” enterprise in Zhejiang Province, with an integrated layout around the pig industry chain. In terms of the launch of pigs, in '22, the company released a total of about 1.25 million heads, achieving leapfrog development of over one million heads. From January to October '23, the company sold a total of 1,865 million pigs, +94% over the same period last year. It is expected that more than 2.2 million heads will be listed in the full year of 23, and 4 to 5 million heads will be listed in the year 24, continuing to achieve rapid growth.

Investment suggestions: The company's net profit is estimated to be -220 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 860 million yuan respectively in 2023, 2024, and 2025, up -351%, 352%, and 56% year-on-year respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is -48, 19, and 12 times, respectively. Maintain the buy rating.

Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices, risk of sudden illness.

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