首次覆盖，给予“ 增持”评级。公司聚焦自免、感染性疾病以及肿瘤等领域，具有自主研发的抗体技术平台，核心产品GR1501、GR1801 和GR1802 市场空间广阔。我们预计2023-2025 年EPS 分别为-2.04/-1.35/-1.15 元，根据DCF 绝对估值法，给予目标价43.66 元，首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Zhixiang Jintai is an innovative pharmaceutical company in the field of self-immunity and infection. The core product IL-17A GR1501 is progressing the fastest in China and is expected to be approved in 2024. GR1801 is expected to start a new era of passive immunization, and is expected to quickly deliver results in the future.
Key points of investment:
It was covered for the first time, and a “increase in holdings” rating was given. The company focuses on the fields of self-immunity, infectious diseases, and tumors. It has a self-developed antibody technology platform, and the core products GR1501, GR1801 and GR1802 have broad market space. We expect the 2023-2025 EPS to be -2.04/-1.35/-1.15 yuan respectively. According to the DCF absolute valuation method, the target price is 43.66 yuan, covering it for the first time, and giving it an “increase in holdings” rating.
Self-exempt field: GR1501 is expected to become the first domestically approved IL-17A, and the GR1802 explores the broad market space for IL-4R targets. GR1501 is currently the fastest-progressing IL-17A monoclonal antibody in China. It submitted an NDA in March 2023 and is expected to be approved for listing in 2024H1, becoming the first domestically produced IL-17A monoclonal antibody. Due to IL-17A's rapid efficacy and low cost, we expect that the psoriasis market will still be dominated by IL-17A in the future. GR1501, as the first domestically produced monoclonal antibody, is expected to quickly seize the market, with a clear first-mover advantage. AX-spa indications will also further increase market space in the future. We expect the GR1501 peak to exceed 2.5 billion yuan. Sanofi's IL-4Rα (IL-4Rα) had sales of over 8 billion euros in 2022. GR1802 is a self-developed drug with the same target target. It has a broad range of indications and is being studied for multiple indications. It is expected to be marketed in 2026, with a peak value of over 1.7 billion yuan.
Anti-infective field: GR1801 is the first double rabies in China, opening up a new era of passive rabies immunization. Post-exposure treatment of rabies is the only effective way to prevent rabies. Tertiary exposure requires not only vaccination, but also passive immunization preparations. Currently, the penetration rate of passive immunity after tertiary exposure in China is only 15%, and most of them are immunoglobulins. Compared with them, rabies specific antibodies have the advantages of high safety, high efficacy, and low cost. Dual resistance can effectively avoid the problem of immune evasion. The market prospects are broad, and it is hoped that a new era of passive rabies immunity will begin. We expect GR1801 sales to exceed $2 billion as future health needs and post-exposure patient education levels increase.
Catalysts: GR1501 approved for marketing, GR1801 is progressing smoothly, and the clinical practice of GR1802 with multiple indications is progressing steadily
Risk warning: clinical progress falls short of expectations, risk of R&D failure, and inadequate marketing