Glonghui November 22 | Yongan Futures analysis indicates that the fourth quarter is a window period for phased accumulation expectations to be fulfilled. Global copper inventories began to accumulate in September. Copper fundamentals changed from strong to weak in the fourth quarter, spot support weakened slightly, and the overall supply and demand structure was slightly relaxed. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the global copper surplus will be around 100,000 tons in the context of the double increase in global supply and demand next year; domestic fine copper also showed a basic balance between supply and demand in the fourth quarter of this year, and a slight accumulation of about 20,000 tons is expected in December. Against the backdrop of increasing supply and demand, the current balance sheet contradiction is not obvious. Therefore, it is believed that the pace of the Fed's monetary policy still has a great influence on the trend of copper prices. The US dollar index and US bond yields showed signs of peaking and falling in early November. The momentum supporting the high level of operation of the US dollar index and US bond yields — the core CPI also showed a trend of continued weakening. Currently, the excess savings of American residents will soon be exhausted in the fourth quarter, and the tight financial environment will gradually affect the judgment on residents' balance sheets. Thus, from the perspective of macro factors, the suppression of copper prices by macro factors has shown signs of weakening. Copper prices may show a trend of moderation first and then upward in the fourth quarter. We still need to pay attention to the changing trend of core inflation and the inflection point of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.