云南白药(000538):三季度业绩稳定 盈利能力持续提升

Yunnan Baiyao (000538): Stable performance in the third quarter and continued improvement in profitability

華安證券 ·  11/21/2023


Yunnan Baiyao released its third quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved total operating income of 29.689 billion yuan, +10.30% year-on-year; net profit of 4.123 billion yuan, +78.90%; net profit after deduction of 3.853 billion yuan, +42.46% year-on-year.


The performance of the first three quarters was stable, and the profit side maintained rapid growth in the third quarter. Looking at a single quarter, 23Q3 achieved total operating income of 9.379 billion yuan, +5.40% year-on-year; net profit of 1,295 billion yuan, +61.05%; net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 1,116 billion yuan, +6.28% year-on-year, and the profit side maintained a high growth rate.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's overall gross margin was 27.37%, -0.84 percentage points, net profit margin was 13.89%, +5.94 percentage points, sales expense ratio 11.30%, year-on-year -0.18 percentage points, management expense ratio 1.87%, -0.12 percentage points, R&D expenses rate 0.74%, -0.03 percentage points year-on-year, and financial expense ratio -0.64%, +0.15 percentage points year-on-year. Net interest rates have increased significantly, and profitability has continued to be optimized.

Laying the foundation for a new nuclear drug research and development layout, the (BU) layout creates a new performance growth point. The company invested 219 million yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 5.17% over the same period last year. Cloud Nuclear Pharmaceutical (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, was incorporated and will build a 6,000-square-meter nuclear drug research and development center in Tianjin, including a 2,000-square-meter radioactive workplace. By building a proprietary R&D platform, a systematic R&D system will be established to effectively improve nuclear drug R&D efficiency and lay a good foundation for the company's innovative drug layout.

The company has in-depth cooperation with Peking University Medical Department, using Peking University - Yunnan Baiyao International Medical Research Center as an important bridge to explore innovative research and development model platforms for school-enterprise cooperation. Strategic cooperation is carried out with Shanghai Pharmaceutical in various fields. The company has successively introduced high-level talents in various fields, hired 8 senior researchers, introduced 2 researchers under the new system, and joined a group of young and middle-aged experts at the same time, shifting to a dual-channel talent model of “internal training+external introduction”.

Comprehensively promote the deepening of the layout of emerging business units (BU). The company focuses on an established development strategy and is committed to exploring a new “comprehensive solution” business model based on a precise and customized “comprehensive solution” business model based on big data service back office to create new performance growth points for the company.

The Dental Intelligence Business Unit (BU) focuses on the professional care circuit. The front end uses the “ToothTalk” (ToothTalk) dental science research brand to achieve full coverage of oral care products, including smart electric toothbrushes, toothbrushes, personalized brushes, mouthwashes, gels, mouth sprays, etc. In the back office, the brand uses teeth to connect to C-end users through the dental consulting service platform “I see” applet to accurately carry out private domain operations.

The Precision Medicine and Aesthetics Business Unit (BU) is based on medical and aesthetic offline flagship stores and expands the layout of the entire medical and aesthetic industry chain.

The Zhiyun Health Business Unit (BU) is committed to building a commercial operation platform for functional foods and scientific nutritional products. It focuses on e-commerce operations based on traditional channel layouts such as “Baiyao Life+” self-operated stores. Currently, there are 23 online stores.

The Smart Technology Business Unit (BU) has officially started operation and is committed to building a global digital platform for Yunnan Baiyao.

Investment advice

We maintain our previous forecasts. The company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 is expected to reach 40.88 billion yuan, 45.28 billion yuan, and 49.73 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 12.0%/10.8%/9.8%, respectively, and net profit from 2023 to 2025 is expected to reach 4.5 billion yuan, 4.98 billion yuan, and 5.51 billion yuan, respectively, up 50.0%/10.6%/10.7% year on year. The corresponding EPS for 2023-2025 is about 2.51 yuan, 2.77 yuan, and 3.07 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE valuations are 20 times, 18 times, and 16 times, respectively. Maintain an “overweight” investment rating.

Risk warning

Policy changes are uncertain, returns on research and development of new drugs fall short of expectations, and development of new markets falls short of expectations.

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