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中银证券基础化工23年三季报综述:盈利低位有望企稳 需求端或持续向好

Summary of the Bank of China Securities Basic Chemical Report for the Third Quarter of '23: Low profit levels are expected to stabilize the demand side or continue to improve

Zhitong Finance ·  11/22/2023 16:00

The current sector valuation is low

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of China Securities released a research report saying that under the influence of factors such as weak downstream demand, the overall profitability of the basic chemical industry in the first three quarters of 2023 fell to a recent low level, and the performance of some sub-industries improved in 23Q3. As the economy recovers and industry sentiment picks up, the demand side is expected to continue to improve. Currently, sector valuations are low, maintaining the industry's strength over market ratings.

▍ The main views of BOC Securities are as follows:

The profitability of the industry in the first three quarters of 2023 fell to a recent low level. 23Q3 revenue and gross margin increased month-on-month, and we look forward to a subsequent recovery.

The total revenue of the basic chemical sector for the first three quarters of 2023 was 1,343.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.30%; net profit was a total of 80,554 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.66%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the industry were 16.89% and 6.00% respectively, down 4.73 pct and 4.54 pct respectively from the previous year. The ROE (dilution) for the first three quarters of 2023 was 5.83%, down 6.06 pct from the first three quarters of 2022. Looking at a single quarter, the total revenue of the 23Q3 basic chemical industry was 463.238 billion yuan, up 1.14% year over year in 22Q3 and 2.90% over 23Q2;

Net profit totaled 25.117 billion yuan, down 24.25% year on year, down 6.59% month on month; gross margin was 16.72%, down 1.58 pct year on year, up 0.26 pct month on month; net profit margin was 5.42%, down 1.82 pct year on year, down 0.55 pct month on month; ROE was 1.82%, down 0.79 pct year on year, down 0.17 pct month on month.

The revenue and net profit of most sub-industries declined year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023, and some sub-industries improved month-on-month in 23Q3.

In the first three quarters of 2023, out of the 35 sub-industries counted, 15 sub-industries achieved positive revenue growth compared to the first three quarters of 2022. Except for the explosives products sub-industry, which increased by 35.53%, the rest of the sub-industries did not exceed 20%. Looking at a single quarter, there were 20 sub-industries whose 23Q3 revenue increased year-on-year in 22Q3. Among them, 4 sub-industries increased by more than 30%, namely compound fertilizer (+47.58%), silicone (+35.93%), electronic chemicals III (+35.27%), and explosives products (+32.04%); 23 sub-industries achieved positive month-on-month growth in 23Q3 revenue, with the highest growth rates being electronic chemicals III (+51.61%), nylon (+27.06%), and silicone (+1.213%); 233Q3 Ratio average There are 17 sub-sectors that have grown.

In terms of profit, in the first three quarters of 2023, out of the 35 sub-industries counted, the net profit of 5 sub-industries increased year-on-year and increased by more than 30% year-on-year, of which polyester increased by 784.56% year on year. Looking at 23Q3 compared to 23Q2, 11 sub-industries achieved month-on-month net profit growth, while coal chemicals and nitrogen fertilizer had the highest growth rates, with month-on-month growth rates of 177.70% and 110.18% respectively; 20 sub-industries had net profit falling month-on-month, with 8 sub-industries falling by more than 50%;

In addition, the chlor-alkali, nylon, and carbon black sub-industry's net profit in 23Q3 turned a loss into a profit compared to 23Q2, and the viscose sub-industry turned a loss. There were 5 sub-industries where net profit increased on a month-on-month basis in 23Q3, namely other chemical raw materials, coal chemicals, titanium dioxide, non-metallic materials III, and electronic chemicals III.

The construction of industry production capacity continues to advance.

Projects under construction in the basic chemical industry in the first three quarters of 2023 were 325.274 billion yuan, an increase of 23.78% over the previous year. Construction in progress in 12 sub-industries declined year over year, while the rest showed an upward trend. The sub-industries where projects under construction increased by more than 100% year on year were other rubber products (+375.65%), adhesives and tape (+196.68%), nitrogen fertilizer (+194.09%), silicone (+141.24%), potash fertilizer (+132.21%), compound fertilizer (+124.17%), and semiconductor materials (+106.44%).

The amount of fixed assets in the basic chemical industry in the first three quarters of 2023 was 944.241 billion yuan, an increase of 19.05% over the previous year. Only the textile chemicals and synthetic resins sub-industries declined year-on-year, down 1.02% and 0.88% respectively. The sub-industries that increased by more than 30% were modified plastics (+59.28%), other chemical raw materials (+53.93%), fluorochemicals (+35.81%), polyurethanes (+33.76%), and food and feed additives (+33.43%).

The main risks faced by ratings

Risk of abnormal fluctuations in oil prices; risk of international trade friction; risk of continued downturn in the cycle; risk of increased industry competition; risk of project progress falling short of expectations; risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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