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中国银行中国银行23Q3季报点评:利润增速提升 资产质量稳定

Bank of China Bank of China 23Q3 Quarterly Report Review: Profit growth increases, asset quality is stable

海通證券 ·  11/22/2023  · Researches

The profit growth rate increased compared to the first half of the year. Bank of China 23Q3 revenue was +3.4%, net profit was +3.3% yoy; 23Q1-3 revenue was +7.05%, net profit was +1.56%, up from 23H1 growth rate.

Credit investment supports the real economy. The total loan amount for 23Q3 increased by 12.5% compared to the end of the previous year, exceeding the loan growth rate of 10.8% in the same period last year. Bank of China credit investment is an expression of support for the real economy.

Asset quality remains solid and stable. The bad rate fell by 1 bps to 1.27% month-on-month. The provision coverage rate was +6.79% to 195.18% month-on-month, indicating an increase in its ability to withstand risks.

Investment advice. We forecast EPS for 2023-2025 to be 0.74, 0.77, and 0.81 yuan, and net profit growth rates of 1.76%, 3.47%, and 4.72%. We obtained a reasonable value of 5.09 yuan according to the DDM model (see Table 2); according to the PB-ROE model, the 2023E PB valuation was 0.65 times (0.53 times that of comparable companies), and the corresponding reasonable value was 4.87 yuan. Therefore, the reasonable value range is 4.87-5.09 yuan (6.54 to 6.83 times PE for 2023, 4.86 times for peer companies), maintaining the “superior to market” rating.

Risk warning: The solvency of enterprises has declined, and asset quality has deteriorated drastically; major changes have occurred in financial supervision policies.

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