Event: The company released its 2023 three-quarter report. In 2023Q1-3, the company achieved operating income of 40.759 billion yuan, +4.98% year-on-year; realized net profit of 2,659 billion yuan, -4.06%; net profit after deducting non-regained net profit of 2,542 billion yuan, -4.81% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q3 achieved operating income of 13.759 billion yuan, +0.01% year-on-year; realized net profit of 798 million yuan, -19.98%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 757 million yuan, or -21.25% year-on-year.
The express delivery volume of the industry increased in the first three quarters of 23 years, the competitive pattern for leading positions was stable, and Yuantong's 23Q3 business volume grew at an accelerated pace. In January-September, the postal industry reached a total of 115.11 billion deliveries, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. Among them, the express delivery business volume (excluding postal group parcel business) reached a total of 93.12 billion units, an increase of 16.4% over the previous year. The competitive pattern for leaders in the express delivery industry is stable. In January-September, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 was 84.1, the same as in January-August. In Q1-3, Yuantong Express's express delivery business completed 15.013 billion units, an increase of 18.45% over the previous year. Among them, the express delivery business completed 5.237 billion tickets in the third quarter, an increase of 14.10% over the previous year and a decrease of 1.54% over the previous year.
The price of a single ticket fell year over year. In January-September, the postal industry's total business revenue reached 1101.33 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% over the previous year. Among them, the express delivery business revenue reached a total of 854.55 billion yuan, an increase of 11.1% over the previous year. Judging from the price of a single ticket, the company's 23Q1-3 express service single ticket revenue was 2.41 yuan, down 6.07% year on year. Among them, Q3 single quarter express ticket revenue was 2.33 yuan, down 7.88% year on year and 0.80% month on month.
Expense control continues to be refined, and earnings in the third quarter are under short-term pressure. The company's 2023Q1-3 comprehensive gross margin was 10.49%, year-on-year -0.97pct. On the cost side, the company's 2023H1 sales expense rate/management expense rate/R&D expense ratio were 0.33%/2.04%/0.1%, respectively, and -0.1/-0.11/-0.04pct year-on-year respectively. Overall, the company's 2023H1 net profit margin was 6.61%, year-on-year -0.63 pct.
Investment suggestion: The domestic express delivery industry increased significantly in the first three quarters, but the revenue growth rate was lower than the growth rate of business volume. In the current competitive environment in the industry, with the company's digital transformation and the continuous advancement of “Project No. 1”, and the arrival of the traditional peak season for express delivery in the fourth quarter, Yuantong Express's various performance and profits are expected to further improve. We adjusted the company's net profit from 2023-2025 from 42.98/53.78/6.145 billion yuan to 38.67/47.02/5.390 billion yuan. Based on the latest closing price, PE was 12.0/9.9/8.6. Maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: economic recovery falls short of expectations, oil prices rise, price competition intensifies.