Event: The company released its report for the third quarter of 2023. In 2023Q1-3, the company achieved total operating income of 32.835 billion yuan, -6.84%; realized net profit of 1,164 billion yuan, +56.05%; net profit after deduction of 970 million yuan, +39.10% year-on-year. Among them, in the 2023Q3 quarter, the company achieved total operating income of 11.261 billion yuan, -9.15% year-on-year; realized net profit of 296 million yuan, +51.46% year-on-year; and net profit after deduction of 180 million yuan, +10.19% year-on-year.
The express delivery industry is growing in business volume, competition is fierce, and revenue is under pressure. In January-September, the postal industry reached a total of 115.11 billion deliveries, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. Among them, the express delivery business volume (excluding postal group parcel business) reached a total of 93.12 billion units, an increase of 16.4% over the previous year. The competitive pattern for leaders in the express delivery industry is stable. In January-September, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 was 84.1, the same as in January-August. 23Q1-3 reached express delivery business volume of 13.267 billion votes and express delivery service business revenue of 31,763 billion yuan, of which the express delivery business volume in July-September was 15.73, 16.23, and 1,669 million votes, -0.13%/1.35%/1.69% year-on-year, and express service business revenue of 34.57, 35.16, and 3.825 billion yuan, -5.28%/-3.88%/-1.14% over the same period last year. Looking at the price of a single ticket, the revenue of the single ticket express delivery business in July-September '23 was 2.20, 2.17, and 2.29 yuan, respectively, -0.31%/-0.45%/-0.34% year-on-year.
Improve the core cost of express delivery and increase the overall profit of the network. Yunda 2023Q1-3 had a gross sales margin of 10.15%, +1.87 pct over the same period last year. On the cost side, the 2023Q1-3 sales expense rate/management expense rate/R&D expense rate/financial expense ratio were 0.80%/3.02%/0.79%/0.90%, respectively. Each expense rate was -0.05pct/-0.29pct/+0.03pct/-0.27pct year-on-year. Overall, the company's net sales interest rate for 2023Q1-3 was 3.59%, +1.4pct year-on-year.
Actively explore and participate in partnerships with various platforms. Yunda Co., Ltd. actively explores and participates in cooperation with various platforms. By leveraging its asset advantages, technological advantages, and service advantages, the company guarantees the quality and efficiency of services during peak periods, and provides value-added services for various types of goods with special needs in various aspects such as collection, sorting, transit, and transportation.
Investment advice: The current competitive pattern for leading express delivery companies has been determined, and the overall business volume continues to grow. It is expected that the traditional peak shopping season in the fourth quarter will drive further growth in business volume. We adjusted the company's net profit from 2023-2025 from 24.47/33.44/3,927 million yuan to 19.57/25.60/3.353 billion yuan. Based on the latest closing price, PE was 13.3/10.2/7.8. Maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition risk, information system risk, risk of changes in industry regulations and industrial policies, risk of possible cost increases, and risk of exchange rate fluctuations.