Since the Nov. 1 Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting, market expectations on interest rates have taken a dovish turn. Tuesday's publication of the minutes from that meeting could provide a sobering reminder that the Fed's thinking may lag that of the markets.

Following last week's inflation data that showed consumer and producer price inflation continued to slow, U.S. interest rate markets were pricing a 65% likelihood that the Fed would cut rates by May 2024. Since the end of October, ETFs that track the likely path of interest rates have been moving lower. On Monday, theGlobal X Interest...