Incident: Guolian Co., Ltd. issued an announcement on the progress of repurchasing the company's shares through centralized bidding transactions. On November 3, 2023, the company repurchased 260,000 shares through centralized bidding transactions, accounting for 0.04% of the company's current total share capital, and the total payment amount is 9.991 million yuan (excluding transaction fees). As of November 3, 2023, the company has repurchased a total of 1,8536 million shares through centralized bidding transactions.
The main business has maintained good growth, and the upstream and downstream strategies have achieved remarkable results. In 23Q3, the company achieved revenue of 13.631 billion yuan, up 46.9% year on year; net profit of about 360 million yuan, up 41.8% year on year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was about 370 million yuan, up 56% year on year. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 37.26 billion yuan, an increase of 47.6% over the previous year; net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 47.2% over the previous year; net profit after deducting non-return net profit of about 940 million yuan, an increase of 50.6% over the previous year. The company continues to promote the penetration rate of e-commerce transactions on various platforms and promote the digitalization process of the industry. At the same time, the company is also promoting and constructing a big data service system for vertical industries to accelerate research and related work on data asset pricing and data asset listing. The subsequent performance is worth looking forward to.
The performance of the Double Ten E-Commerce Festival was outstanding, and the transaction volume and order volume on the Duoduo platform continued to grow. After the launch of this year's Double Ten Industrial E-commerce Festival on September 12, the top ten platforms of Tuduoduo, Weiduoduo, Paper, Bodoo, Fat, Grain and Oil, Core, Medical Devices, Cold Chain, and New Energy Duoduo participated simultaneously to launch various activities such as “Gathering Group” and “Premium Product Sale” with core cloud factory suppliers. As of October 10, ending at 21:00, overall orders exceeded 25.65 billion dollars, up 48.9% year on year. The trading volume and order volume of the platform increased rapidly during the activity period, driving the growth of revenue and gross profit, which is expected to support the increase in net profit.
Profit forecasts and investment advice. Net profit from 2023-2025 is estimated to be 1.63 billion yuan, 2.28 billion yuan and 3.01 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 17 times, 12 times, and 9 times, respectively. The company's performance is resilient. The launch of the new Duoduo platform is expected to provide incremental gains, and the power of AI technology is expected to continue to increase efficiency. In summary, we gave the company 15 times PE in 2024, corresponding to the target price of 47.40 yuan. Maintaining the “buy” rating, we recommend that you pay attention.
Risk warning: industry policy risk, increased market competition risk, customer conversion failure, risk of falling short of expectations, and risk of strategy progress falling short of expectations.