Deeply involved in the fields of anti-virus, oncology, and intestinal health, it has segmented racetrack products, and is growing steadily in revenue. Kexon Pharmaceutical was founded in 1997 and is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations. The company's core products go deep into pediatrics, oncology and gastroenterology, and has built a research and development platform for recombinant protein technology, long-acting recombinant proteins, and microecological preparations. The company's revenue has continued to grow in recent years, and the scale of overseas revenue has continued to expand. The market share of core products such as short-acting interferon and erythroid has further expanded, and maintained its first and second largest market share position.
With 20 years of overseas experience, a clear lead, a product matrix has been formed, and the value of overseas commercialization platforms has been highlighted. The company has more than 20 years of overseas commercialization experience and has accumulated rich resources. It has achieved full coverage of emerging countries with a population of over 100 million and the top 30 emerging markets by GDP, and has more than 100 long-term overseas customers. At present, 9 products have been introduced: albumin paclitaxel, bevacizumab, infliximab, adalimumab, liraglutide injections, trastuzumab, nelatinib maleate tablets, lenalidomide, and sivelam carbonate tablets. It is planned to introduce no less than 20 products by 2025. Among them, albumin paclitaxel has entered the EU market and is expected to be approved for listing in 2024. It is estimated that sales will reach 600 million yuan in 2025 in the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and emerging countries, and sales will exceed 1.3 billion yuan in 2027. As more and more products are registered and listed overseas, overseas revenue can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is expected to continue to increase its market share with the core competitive advantages it has already built, while further driving the overseas expansion of products as the value of overseas commercialization platforms is realized. We believe that in the context of the wave of domestic pharmaceutical companies “going overseas”, the company has had a clear lead in overseas commercialization for more than 20 years, and the various advantageous products that the company continues to introduce are expected to help the company release impressive performance in the future. The company's total operating income for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 1,388 million yuan, 1,828 million yuan and 2,247 million yuan respectively, and net profit of -84 million yuan, 18 million yuan and 132 million yuan respectively, covering the first time, giving the company an investment rating of “increased holdings”.
Risk factors: The progress of overseas registration and listing of products falls short of expectations; risk of increased product competition; product commercialization falls short of expectations; impact of policies such as collection; and progress in new product development falls short of expectations.