公司2023Q3 毛利率为26.71%，同比下降1.96 pct，环比下降3.95 pct，主要系公司新增的内容电商业务处于成长期，前期投入较高。公司2023Q3 归母净利率为9.38%，同比下降1.57 pct，环比下降4.03 pct，其中销售费用率为10.73%，环比提升0.16 pct，2023Q3 管理费用率为7.56%，环比提升1.07 pct，或系公司承接新业务加大销售推广力度与人员开支。我们认为，公司内容电商业务仍有较大提升空间，随投入逐步获得回报，公司盈利能力或将持续改善。The impact of the publication of “Zhejiang Shangbai” still exists. New business may drive performance recovery and maintain the “buy” rating
2023Q3 achieved revenue of 285 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.00%, mainly due to the disposal subsidiary “Zhejiang Shangbai”, which was no longer included in the scope of the merger, and consolidated revenue was reduced; net profit was 26.6838 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.37%, a decrease of 39.84% over the previous year, mainly the disposal subsidiary “Zhejiang Shangbai”, and increased amortization of the headquarters building. At the same time, some projects sought innovative cooperation, and expenses increased. In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 894 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%; net profit of 114 million yuan was realized, a year-on-year decrease of 22.64%. Considering the impact of “Zhejiang Shangbai”, we lowered our profit forecast for 2023-2025. The estimated net profit for 2023-2025 is 1.51/1.86/217 million yuan (pre-2025 value of 2.59/3.05/349 million yuan, respectively), corresponding EPS of 0.63/0.78/0.91 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 39.2/31.8/27.3 times, respectively. We are optimistic that the company will consolidate its leading position as a global e-commerce service provider and follow new business in the future Expansion, performance has been restored, and the “buy” rating has been maintained.
2023Q3 Gross margin is under pressure. As new business expands, the company's profitability may continue to improve
The company's 2023Q3 gross margin was 26.71%, down 1.96 pct year on year and 3.95 pct month on month. Mainly, the company's new content e-commerce business is growing, and upfront investment is high. The company's net interest rate for 2023Q3 was 9.38%, down 1.57 pct year on year and 4.03 pct month on month, of which the sales expense ratio was 10.73%, up 0.16 pct from month to month, and the 2023Q3 management expense ratio was 7.56%, up 1.07 pct from month to month, or the company undertook new business to increase sales promotion efforts and personnel expenses. We believe that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the company's content e-commerce business. As investment gradually returns, the company's profitability may continue to improve.
“Double 11" is approaching, and the diversified channel layout is expected to drive the company's performance recovery
The company achieved a total of GMV of 10.456 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, adding 5 new brands, including Thunderbolt and Zijin Jewelry. Looking ahead to Q4, according to Tmall Big Beauty, Mao Geping, the company's key partner brand, ranked 10th on the first day of the “Double 11" Tmall makeup pre-sale in 2023, an increase of 7 places over the previous year. We believe that “Double 11" has a clear driving effect on the company's performance. In the context of consumption recovery and compounding the company's diversified power channels, the company is expected to return to growth in Q4, driving performance recovery.
Risk warning: Risks such as increased competition in the agency management industry and the company's online operation rights being taken back by the brand.
