利润率水平合理，期间费用控制良好。根据公司公告，2023Q1-3，公司毛利率、净利率分别为32.81%、7.69%，同比-8.32pcts、-10.66pcts，我们判断利润率下滑主要系新冠业务大幅缩减所致，实际公司的毛利率相较疫情前保持稳定，净利率水平明显提高（2019Q1-3公司的毛利率、净利率分别为32.28%、8.51%）。The performance of 2023Q3 companies is under phased pressure, mainly due to the reduction in COVID-19 business and the strengthening of industry supervision. Major business growth has slowed, and 2024 is expected to usher in a recovery. The profit margin level is reasonable, and the period expenses are well controlled. Operating cash flow continues to improve, and accounts receivable are collected in an orderly manner. Using the relative valuation method, the company was given 26x PE in 2023 with a corresponding target price of 32 yuan to maintain the “buy” rating.
The performance of 2023Q3 companies is under phased pressure, mainly due to the reduction in COVID-19 business and the strengthening of industry supervision. According to the company announcement, the 2023Q1-3 company achieved operating income, net profit from the mother, net profit from the mother, net profit after deduction of 10.292 billion yuan, 531 million yuan, and 482 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, -34.15%, -78.13%, and -80.01%, of which 2023Q3 achieved operating income, net profit from the mother, and net profit of 3.450 billion yuan and 78 million yuan (profit and loss on disposal of non-current assets - 105 million yuan), 150 million yuan, -29.25%, -85.84%, -71.88%. The decline on the revenue side and profit side is mainly due to the sharp reduction in COVID-19 business and the strengthening of industry supervision.
Major business growth has slowed, and 2024 is expected to experience a recovery. According to the company's performance briefing, in 2023Q1-3, the company's ICL business revenue was 3.711 billion yuan, +21.16%; self-produced product revenue was 329 million yuan, +30.56%; and channel product revenue was 6.231 billion yuan, +6.07% year-on-year. Among them, in 2023Q3, the company's ICL business revenue was 1,232 billion yuan, +10.01% year on year, revenue from self-produced products was 100 million yuan, +9.89% year on year; channel product revenue was 2.107 billion yuan, +4.14% year on year. We believe that 2023Q3 industry regulation has been strengthened, terminal business demand has been reduced, and the company's business revenue growth rate has slowed significantly. We expect the impact of 2023Q4 to decrease. In 2024, we expect the company's business to return to a steady, high-quality growth pace as the high-pressure regulation of the industry is digested in 2023 and the high-pressure regulation of the industry gradually returns to normal.
The profit margin level is reasonable, and the period expenses are well controlled. According to the company announcement, in 2023Q1-3, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 32.81% and 7.69%, respectively, with -8.32pcts and -10.66pcts, compared with -8.32pcts and -10.66pcts. We judge that the decline in profit margins is mainly due to the sharp reduction in COVID-19 business. The actual gross margin of the company remained stable compared to before the pandemic, and the net profit margin level increased markedly (2019Q1-3 company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 32.28% and 8.51% respectively).
The company's sales, management, and finance expense ratios for 2023Q1-3 were 8.62%, 6.33%, and 1.65% respectively, compared to +1.46pcts, +0.01pct, and +0.22pct. Considering that the cost rate was low due to the high COVID-19 business base in 2022, the company's period expenses were well controlled.
Operating cash flow continues to improve, and accounts receivable are collected in an orderly manner. According to the company announcement, 2023Q3, the company's net operating cash flow was 339 million yuan, showing a continuous improvement trend (2023Q1 and Q2 were -229 million yuan and 257 million yuan respectively). 2023Q1-3, the company strengthened accounts receivable management. As of 2023Q3, the accounts receivable balance was 9.390 billion yuan (2023Q1 and Q2 were 10.349 billion yuan and 9.665 billion yuan respectively), and recycling was orderly.
Risk factors: risk of industry policy changes; risk of increased competition in third-party laboratory medical diagnosis; risk that the company's new business development does not meet expectations; risk that the company's repayment cycle will rise, etc.
Profit forecasting, valuation and ratings: The company's regular business continues to grow under the influence of many factors, and the results of high-end layout are gradually highlighted. Considering: 1) Increased industry regulation affects short-term terminal demand; 2) the credit impairment losses caused by COVID-19 accounts receivable are long and the resulting credit impairment losses affect the company's performance, we lowered the company's 2023/2024/2025 EPS forecast to 1.24/1.82/2.36 (the original forecast was 1.76/2.24/2.68 yuan). Referring to comparable companies (Jinyu Medical/Mike Biography/Yahuilong) Wind unanimously predicted an average PE of 32 times in 2023. Considering that the company's regular business growth rate was slightly lower than the average of comparable companies, the company was given In 2023, 26 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 32 yuan (the original target price was 35 yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
