Hot news

• CPI sends a surprise! “New Federal Reserve News Agency” chants that interest rate hikes may be over

Both US CPI and core CPI growth slowed more than expected in October. After the CPI was announced, market pricing reflects that investors currently expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates in March next year as soon as next year, and that it will cut interest rates about twice by July. After the CPI was announced, Nick Timiraos, a well-known journalist who is regarded as the “mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve” and known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” said bluntly that the Fed may have already raised interest rates. Timiraos posted that the October employment report and inflation report strongly suggest that the last time the Fed raised interest rates in this round occurred in July.

• Federal Reserve officials warned in advance: there will be no smooth slide to the 2% target

On Tuesday EST, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Thomas Barkin said that although “substantial progress” has been made in curbing price pressure in recent months, he is unconvinced that inflation will move smoothly towards the Fed's 2% target. Chicago Fed President Goulsby welcomed the latest data showing a decline in US inflation, but added that the inflation rate is still some way from reaching the Fed's target of 2%.

• “New king of hedge funds” Griffin: If the Fed cuts interest rates too fast, its reputation may be damaged

Ken Griffin, founder of the well-known hedge fund Castle Investment and known as the “new king of hedge funds,” said on Tuesday that he does not expect the Fed to raise interest rates again, but if it cuts interest rates too fast in the future, its reputation may be damaged. “The Fed needs to send the message that they will put the inflation genie back in the bottle. If they cut interest rates too soon, I think they may lose the credibility of the 2% inflation target promise.”

• Bank of America's latest fund manager survey: Very confident that interest rate hikes have been put in place

According to the latest fund manager survey report released by Bank of America, based on “great confidence” that policy interest rates will fall in 2024, these investors showed the strongest net increase in bond holdings since the subprime mortgage crisis. Michael Harnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, explained that the “big change” that has occurred here is not a change in investors' expectations of the macro outlook, but rather an expectation that inflation and bond yields will weaken simultaneously in 2024.

• The risk of a US government shutdown is declining: the Republican House Speaker's plan is supported by more Democrats

The risk that the US federal government will shut down this weekend has been reduced because Republican and House Speaker Johnson's new plan to avoid a shutdown won the support of more Democratic lawmakers. On Tuesday, November 14, local time, Representative Pramila Jayapal, the leader of the Democratic Party's largest core group in the House of Representatives, said that Johnson's plan was “a huge victory” for the Democratic Party. Democratic leader Schumer of the Senate said he was “excited, but also very cautious,” and hoped Johnson's proposal would pass in the House of Representatives.

Resumption of US stock trading

• The slowdown in inflation sparked bullish sentiment. The NASDAQ surged 2.4%, and the market bet that the Federal Reserve had completed the interest rate hike

On Tuesday EST, weaker than expected US inflation data supported the view that the Fed had already raised interest rates. Market sentiment was completely ignited, and investors were not convinced by the risk of the Middle East conflict and the US government shutdown. At the close, the NASDAQ was up 2.37%, the S&P 500 was up 1.91%, and the Dow was up 1.43%.

Star Technology stocks generally rose. Tesla rose more than 6%, Intel rose more than 3%, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia rose more than 2%, Apple and Google rose more than 1%, and Netflix and Microsoft rose slightly. Among them, Nvidia and Microsoft reached record closing highs, and Nvidia achieved ten consecutive rises to tie the record for the longest consecutive increase since listing.

Popular Chinese securities have generally risen, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has risen more than 2%, the highest for three days to a month. Xiaopeng Motor rose by more than 8%, NIO by more than 5%, Weibo by more than 4%, JD, Vipshop, Tencent Music, and Bilibili by more than 3%, and iQiyi and Baidu by more than 2%.

• Tiger Global reduced its position in JD by 53% in Q3, and opened positions on Ali and Pinduoduo

According to the 13F documents disclosed by Tiger Global Fund on Tuesday, the fund reduced its holdings by the most number of individual stocks in the third quarter$JD.com (JD.US)$, sold a total of 11.21 million shares, reduced holdings by 53%, and opened positions at the same time$Alibaba (BABA.US)$with$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$, bought nearly 1.5 million shares and 1.37 million shares respectively. Tiger Global Q3 increased its holdings by Sea, followed by Nvidia, which increased its holdings by 247% and 76.8%, respectively. By the end of Q3, the total market value of Tiger Global's holdings had risen to US$13.6 billion, an increase of US$1.6 billion over the previous report.

• Gao Lin's HHLR Advisors revealed 13F of US stocks in the third quarter: China Securities dominated, increasing its holdings in technology stocks such as Amazon and Microsoft

HHLR Advisors, a subsidiary of Hillhouse, announced US stock position data for the third quarter of 2023 on Tuesday. HHLR Advisors is centrally configured around technology companies and bioinnovative drug companies, and$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Eleven other stocks carried out additional operations such as increased holdings and new purchases. As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, HHLR Advisors' top ten heavyweight stocks were BeiGene, Pinduoduo, Shell, Legendary Creature, Microsoft, DoorDash, Saifushi, Alibaba, TAKE-TWO Interactive Software, and Amazon. China's securities accounted for half of the total, accounting for more than 70% of the market capitalization.

• Alibaba discloses 13F position report for the third quarter

$Alibaba (BABA.US)$According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 13F documents submitted to the US Securities Regulatory Commission show that as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, Alibaba held 500,000 Baishi Logistics shares, 10 million Station B shares, 8434,57 million Hello Travel shares, 9 million Weibo shares, 6.65 million Xiaopeng Motor shares, 14646.97 million shares of 1stdibs shares, 21184.44 million shares of 23andMe shares, 455.9016 million shares of MariaDB shares, and 108.79.04 million shares of US mobile shares.

• Indian official: Tesla plans to double parts imports from India

On November 14, India's Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, said on social media platform X,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The plan is to double the number of parts imported from India. Goyal previously visited Tesla's Fremont, California factory. He wrote on Platform X: “It's great to see the growing importance of Indian auto parts suppliers in Tesla's electric vehicle supply chain. The company is planning to double its component imports from India.” By the close, Tesla was up more than 6%.

• Market demand is so intense that Belgium is forced to restrict the use of the diabetes drug Ozempic

On Tuesday local time, Belgium officially announced that due to the present$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$Ozempic and similar drugs are in short supply, and the use of Ozempic for weight loss will be temporarily restricted to keep the drug for patients with diabetes. The Belgian Federal Agency for Drugs and Health Products issued a statement on the same day saying that GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic can only be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes and some severe obesity. By the close, Novo Nordisk was down more than 1%.

• The “Alpha Go” weather prediction time is coming. Google's new paper says that AI's mid-term predictions are more accurate

On Tuesday local time,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$The DeepMind team published a paper in the “Science” journal, saying that the GraphCast AI model developed by the team showed greater accuracy and efficiency than traditional weather prediction models in the “field of mid-term weather prediction for 3 to 10 days.” The DeepMind team bluntly stated in the paper's conclusion that the team believes this AI model marks a “turning point in weather forecasting (industry).”

• Home building materials retailer Debo rose more than 5%, and both revenue and net profit exceeded expectations

$Home Depot (HD.US)$Q3 revenue was US$37.71 billion, the same period last year was US$38.87 billion, but higher than market expectations of US$37.6 billion; net profit was US$3.81 billion, lower than US$4.34 billion in the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share were $3.81, with market expectations of $3.76 billion. Due to the weakening demand for home improvement, Home Depot's third-quarter revenue and profit both declined year-on-year, while at the same time narrowing the guidance range for this year's decline in profit and revenue. By the close, Home Depot was up more than 5%.

• Southeast Asia tech giant Sea plummeted more than 22%, and Q3 earnings per share fell short of analysts' expectations

$Sea (SE.US)$Q3 revenue was US$3.31 billion, up 4.9% year on year from US$3.15 billion in the same period last year; gross profit was US$1.44 billion, up 17.4% year on year from US$1.23 billion in the same period last year; net loss was US$140 million, down 74.7% year on year from US$570 million in the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share was -$0.26. It fell short of analysts' expectations of $0.03. Digital entertainment revenue fell 33.7% year on year, a serious decline of US$590 million. By the close, Sea had plummeted more than 22%.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• North Water Sweeps Hong Kong Stock ETF, Selling Meituan Over HK$300 Million, Reducing Xiaomi's Inventory by Nearly HK$200 Million

On November 14 (Tuesday), South China Capital bought a net purchase of Hong Kong stocks of HK$1,363 billion.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$MOG DIGITECH (01942.HK)$,$SUNAC (01918.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$1,053 million, HK$76.56 million and HK$19.06 million respectively;

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Net sales were HK$302 million, HK$193 million and HK$149 million, respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: China's total retail sales rate of social consumer goods per year; annual value added rate of industries above the scale of China; monthly retail sales rate in the US; PPI; Xiaopeng Motor; JD Group; Tencent Holdings

In terms of economic data, the annual rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in China in October, and the annual value added rate of industries above scale in China in OctoberIt will be released at 10 a.m.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3982.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% over the previous month, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. From January to September 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 34210.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year. Guo Liyan, director of the Situation Office of the Decision Consulting Department of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that according to the performance of major categories of consumption, residents' income, and the recovery of consumer spending, total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to grow at around 7% throughout the year.

Annual rate of PPI in the US for October,Monthly retail sales rate for OctoberIt will be announced at 21:30.

According to data from the US Department of Commerce, US retail sales in September were unexpectedly strong, rising 0.7% month-on-month, far higher than the 0.3% generally anticipated by the market. This was because households increased car purchases and increased spending in restaurants and bars, indicating that the US economy was strong at the end of the third quarter. Consumer spending was driven by a tight labor market, which created 336,000 jobs in September. The excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are still higher than previous estimates. Core retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services increased 0.6%. Core retail sales are closest to the consumer spending portion of GDP. Consumer spending is expected to accelerate in the third quarter due to the July surge. Spending on services has also remained steady, which should boost overall consumption.

In terms of company performance,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$JD-SW (09618.HK)$,$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$The Q3 results will be announced in a big way.

According to market consensus expectations,Tencent's revenue for the third quarter is expected to be 155.581 billion yuan (RMB, same below), up 11.06% year on year;Basic earnings per share were $3.64, down 11.21% year on year. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations,Net profit under non-IFRS will reach 39.570 billion yuan, up 23% year on year.

China Merchants Securities believes that JD's revenue is still under pressure due to the weak recovery in Q3 macro consumption and business adjustments. It is estimated that Q3 Group's revenue is +1% year on year and JD's retail revenue is -1% year over year. It is expected that business adjustments are completed in 2024 and new small and medium-sized businesses are released, and platform growth can be expected due to the completion of business adjustments in 2024 and the release of business activity from new small and medium-sized businesses. It is optimistic about solid barriers and user growth space under the company's self-operated model in the long term.

Niu Niu Chen read:

Don't be clueless and buy stocks at will. You must do some solid homework before investing in order to succeed!

—William O'Neil

editor/tolk