This report is read as follows:
The elevator industry has hit bottom and warmed up, update the demand relay real estate, and install elevators to welcome policy catalysis. Global perspective: Shanghai Mitsubishi subsidiary cash dividend rate is close to 100%Shanghai mechanical and electricalIs an undervalued high-quality value stock.
Main points of investment:
Conclusion: from a global perspective, Shanghai Mechatronics is an undervalued high-quality value stock. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2019 to 2021 will be 1.31,1.52,1.74 yuan. Considering the company's role as the industry leader and future performance growth, the company will be given a target price of 20.9 yuan, corresponding to 16 times PE in 2019, increasing its holdings.
The elevator industry has hit bottom and warmed up, update the demand relay real estate, and install elevators to welcome policy catalysis. ① elevator demand calculation: 2019 production growth range of 7.5% Mel 10.6% (Association caliber). The elevator lagged behind the new real estate construction for about a year, and the output growth rate continued to be in double digits, reaching a four-year high (the caliber of the Bureau of Statistics). At the same time, elevator prices stabilized, confirming that the industry hit bottom and picked up. ② update demand: elevator aging, the upcoming Jugla cycle, is expected to update 100000 units in 2021, relay real estate demand. ③ old residential area to install 2 million elevators potential demand, the old city transformation policy subsidies, is expected to quickly increase the volume.
Global perspective: Shanghai Mitsubishi cash dividend rate is close to 100%, undervalued stocks. ① Japan experience looks at China: elevator sales keep steady for a long time. The number of newly installed elevators in Japan remained stable at 40, 000 from 1991 to 2006, and remained at 28000 after 2006. The stock has been renovated and transformed into a dominant one. The number of elevators in stock in Japan has exceeded 25 years in 2015 and 100000 in 2020. Mitsubishi Electric in Japan, renewal and new equipment demand each accounts for 50%. The dividend yield between ② Kone Elevator and Shanghai Mitsubishi cash dividend is close to 100 per cent, and Kone's 4.1 per cent dividend yield supports 26 times PE. Kone's revenue from China accounts for 25% of the total revenue of Kone 2019Q2. Orders in China increased by more than 10% compared with the same period last year, a significant increase. ③ subsidiary Shanghai Mitsubishi has an outstanding competitive advantage, which is comparable to Hitachi (China) in terms of revenue and stronger profitability; the parent company has 4.8 billion cash on hand, and the company is an undervalued high-quality value stock.
Shanghai Mechatronics (600835) Elevator Global Perspective: undervalued High quality value stocks