The overall delivery data in the first half of the year are in line with expectations, and the performance of sub-sectors is different.

In the first half of 2019: 1) the airline is affected by the suppression of fares, and the overall performance is under pressure; 2) the number of pieces in the express delivery industry is in line with expectations, and the growth rate of leading parts remains stable; 3) the collection and oil transportation is affected by the low base in the same period last year. Year-on-year improvement; 4) in the infrastructure sector, airport traffic growth is low, but tax exemption promotes performance growth; roads, railways and ports are affected by the macroeconomic slowdown, the overall performance is flat. Continue to recommend those with Davis' double-click potentialJiayu InternationalAfter the report, look forward to the second half of the year, recommend: Guangdong Expressway with high dividend debt; the end of capital expenditure and the charging period is expected to be extendedWantong highway。

Aviation performance is under pressure in the first half of the year, and Airport non-Airlines provides performance growth momentum.

In the first half of 2019, the international line of the Aviation Department led to the overall balance of supply and demand, and the occupancy rate increased steadily, but the macroeconomic downturn and the diversion of high-speed rail had a negative impact on public and business travel, and ticket prices are expected to be suppressed in the second quarter, which will be a drag on the performance of the Aviation Department. The levy of the Civil Aviation Development Fund was halved and landed. The base of oil and foreign exchange in the second half of last year was good, and there was no worry about the performance growth in the second half of the year. Follow-up suggestionsBoeing Co737MAX progress, if grounded for longer than expected, suppresses supply growth next year, or supply exceeds demand. The traffic growth rate of the airport plate is low, business provides the driving force for growth, and the performance is growing steadily for a long time. However, the current stock price valuation is reasonable, and the portal hub is recommended for long-term configuration.Shanghai Airport。

Logistics: Shentong is the best choice for express delivery, and Jiayu International is the first choice for multimodal transport.

Express delivery: under the assumption of mild price competition, the valuation of the express delivery sector is still reasonable and has a comparative advantage over consumer goods. Before the performance vacuum period before the report, single quantity is given priority, Shentong is the first choice; after the report, the "Singles Day" market, the market value flexibility is priority, and Yuantong is the first choice. Supply chain: the price of big goods is relatively high in the past 16 years, the concentration of benefits of leading enterprises has increased, and the market is more worried about the double killing of performance valuations after the major cycle downside, which is relatively optimistic.Jianfa shares. Other logistics (excluding supply chain and express delivery) stocks vary greatly, profitability fluctuates sharply and faces growth bottlenecks, so multimodal transport tracks and theme targets are preferred.

Year-on-year growth in 1H19; year-on-year improvement in oil transportation, but poor performance in 2Q; significant differences in port stocks

Container transportation: the SCFI index rose 5% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and the global container volume is expected to grow by 1.5%, 2%, and the performance is expected to achieve year-on-year growth. The leader of the beneficiary industry actively adjusted the delivery of transport capacity, and the average freight on the western route from Shanghai to the United States rose sharply by 22% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. Oil transportation: affected by the low base in the same period last year, oil transportation profits improved in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. However, the performance in the second quarter was poor, and freight rates failed to continue the upward momentum at the beginning of the year, falling 55% month-on-month. Port: the performance of individual stocks varies greatly due to the influence of geographical location, supply and policy. In the first half of the year, the national port cargo throughput increased by 7.3% over the same period last year, which was in line with expectations as a whole. Focus on:COSCO Shipping Holdings、Cosco sea energy、Shanghai Port Group。

The performance of highway and railway in the second quarter is lacklustre, and it is suggested to lay out the industrial chain or reform theme.

The railway passenger volume maintained steady growth in the second quarter, while the freight volume growth rate rebounded compared with the first quarter, but there were great regional differences. Highway passenger traffic maintained steady growth in the second quarter, while the growth rate of truck flow decreased slightly compared with the first quarter. We expect the road and railway performance in the second quarter to be relatively lacklustre. As listed companies publish transport data every month, we think it is difficult for China News to exceed market expectations. The second half of the year is the peak period for the upgrading and transformation of highway infrastructure, so it is recommended to lay out the relevant companies in the industrial chain. The general direction of railway reform remains unchanged, focusing on thematic investment opportunities.

Risk tips: economic downturn, trade frictions, rising oil prices, devaluation of RMB, deterioration of competition pattern.