Core views
The blue ocean market for regenerative medicine is vast, and the performance of leading materials is growing steadily. Regenerative medicine is an emerging field that the country attaches great importance to and supports, and the world has developed rapidly in recent years.
According to Statista, in 2021, the global regenerative medicine market was about US$16.9 billion and will reach US$95.5 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 21.22% over the period. As a leading regenerative medicine materials company, the company's performance has maintained steady growth since its listing in 2017. Operating income increased from 183 million yuan in 2017 to 433 million yuan in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 18.80%; net profit increased from 62 million yuan to 185 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 24.44%.
The penetration rate of dental implants has increased, and collection has opened up 100 billion potential
Because dental care has the dual attributes of “immediate need” and “consumption upgrade,” the domestic dental implant market will usher in a period of rapid development as China's aging population accelerates, awareness of restoration increases, and collection policies continue to be implemented. It is expected to break through the 100 billion yuan market by 2025 and close to 200 billion yuan by 2030.
After the absorbable hard brain (ridge) membrane patch is collected, it is expected that the price in exchange for quantity absorbable hard brain (ridge) membrane patch has been selected in 6 provinces. It is currently the only product of the same type that has won the bid in all provincial volume procurement projects. The product is expected to be exchanged for price for volume, further expanding market share.
Focusing on regenerative medicine materials, the product matrix is getting richer
Currently, the product active bio-bone is about to be officially marketed. Calcium-silicon bioceramic bone repair materials have completed clinical trials nationwide, and breast patches and uterine cavity repair membranes are in the clinical enrollment stage. With the continuous optimization and enrichment of the company's product structure, revenue sources are diversifying.
Company profit forecasting and valuation
The estimated operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 560.84, 706.15, and 896.17 million yuan, YOY is 59.46%, 25.91%, 26.91; EPS is 1.30 yuan/share, 1.66 yuan/share, 2.03 yuan/share, YOY is 25.90%, 27.75%, and 22.75%, respectively, and the target price is 42 yuan/share, giving the company a “recommended (first)” investment rating.
Investment risk tips
Industry policy risk, new product development and registration risk, risk of increased competition in major products, etc.