昆药集团(600422):慢病管理精品国药双驱动 打造银发经济健康龙头

Kunming Pharmaceutical Group (600422): Chronic disease management, quality Chinese medicine, dual drive to create Yinfa's economic health leader

招商證券 ·  Nov 13, 2023 00:00

Kunyao is a leading domestic botanical medicine manufacturer. It entered the central enterprise China Resources 39 system in 2023 and jointly established the strategic goal of becoming “the first stock in Yinfa's economic health, a leader in chronic disease management, and a leader in quality Chinese medicines”. It is entering a new round of growth cycle by optimizing the business structure and promoting quality and efficiency around the “healthy aging” golden circuit.

Chronic disease management: Building a chronic disease ecosystem with Kunyao Xuedongtong as the core. With an early layout, Kunyao aims to become a leader in chronic disease management, building a collaborative ecosystem covering cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and bone issues through “in-hospital+out-of-hospital” and “prescription+retail”. 1) Cardiovascular: The company is the original research unit of Blood Clots. Through the dual driving layout of oral administration and injection, injections have achieved restorative growth during the two major window periods of winning bids and grassroots liberation. Oral agents with Xuetong softgels as the core continue to strengthen evidence-based research, increase retail coverage, and drive steady growth in the Haemetong series; 2) Osteopathic: Potential chronic disease treatment field, subsidiary Beck Norton represented the original research on imported alfacalciferol softgels and sodium hyaluronate injections, and developed its own products Methyl softgels are in the early stages of dosage.

Collaborate with China Resources 39 to jointly build the 37 industrial chain. After entering the China Resources system, the company aimed to establish a benchmark for the 37th chain. The company started a “chain extension - chain repair - strong chain” layout around the 37 industrial chain, and continued to expand the scope of application of 37, and sales of 37 food and daily necessities grew steadily.

Premium Chinese Medicine: With the time-honored “Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381” brand as the core, it creates big brands and big products.

The “Kunming Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381” brand has a rich heritage. It has 143 drug approvals, 21 exclusive product approvals, 15 national traditional Chinese medicine protected varieties, and rich product reserves, forming four major platforms for spleen digestion, gynecology, cold breathing, and classic recipes. The core products, Shenling, Spleen and Stomach Control Granules, Incense Sand, and Liver Relief Granules, are in the release period. Channel penetration is constantly increasing. At the same time, it continues to cultivate potential varieties such as lung cleansing and phlegm cleansing pills and oropharyngeal cleansing pills, etc., to build a rich health consumer product platform.

Pharmaceutical business: Deeply involved in Yunnan, has omni-channel service capabilities covering the entire province of Yunnan, continuously consolidates existing business foundations, optimizes the structure, and improves operational efficiency.

Profit forecasting and investment advice: We continue to be optimistic about the company's business structure optimization, focus on the main business, and the improvement in business quality brought about by China Resources's 199 investment, thus enhancing the company's overall profitability. Revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated at 759/83.6/92.9 billion yuan, up -8.4%/10.1%/11.2% year on year, net profit of 5.2/7.1/8.5 billion yuan, year-on-year increase of 36.8%/34.4%/20.0%, corresponding PE is 30/22/19 times, covering the first time, giving it a “highly recommended” rating.

Risk warning: policy risks, marketing falling short of expectations, failure in R&D, risk of rising raw materials, etc.

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