Revenue increased year on year, and multiple impairments affected net profit
Kehua Data released its 2023 three-quarter report. The company achieved revenue of 5.502 billion yuan from 2023Q1-3, YOY +51.04%. Net profit for the mother was 445 million yuan, yoy +54.39%, net profit after deduction of 421 million yuan, yoy +56.84%. Among them, 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, QOQ +10.4%, yoy +47.3%, net profit of 123 million yuan, QOQ -30.7%, and YOY +1%. Net profit after deducting non-return to the mother is 121 million yuan, QOQ -28.5%, YOY +5.1%. The gross margin/net margin of the 2023Q3 was 28.6%/6.0%, -0.4pct/-3.5pct, respectively, and the sales/management/development/development/finance expense ratio was 8.1%/3.1%/5.3%/1.1%, respectively, +0.4/+0.2/-0.7/+0.3 pct month-on-month. Among them, Q3 alone accounted for asset impairment losses of $43 million, credit impairment losses of $11 million, and net investment income of $23 million. Considering the impact of the impairment associated with the company's Q3 calculation and the decline in the price of lithium carbonate on the company's revenue from sales of energy storage system integrated products, we lowered the company's 2023-2025 profit forecast to 6.86/9.75/1,321 billion yuan (previously 7.82/10.98/1,465 billion yuan), EPS of 1.49/2.11/2.86 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 19.9/14.0/10.3 times. Considering the steady release of downstream demand, the company's “AI+ new energy” strategy is expected to continue to deliver results. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Rich types of energy storage products and leading technical strength
According to S&P Global Converters Insights data, the company ranked fourth in the world in shipments of energy storage converter products in 2022. Its optical storage solutions have been widely used at home and abroad. The successful application of domestic large storage products in the 100MW/200MWh project in Ningdong, Ningxia, which has strong wind and sand, and the 200MW/400MWh project in Ziyun, Guizhou in the plateau region, has established domestic 100 megawatt liquid-cooled energy storage power electronic applications. Through its industrial and commercial energy storage and household storage products, it has also received unanimous praise from downstream customers.
Leading data center service provider, AI is expected to drive incremental performance As a leading high-security data center service provider in China, the company has more than 10 years of data center construction and operation experience, launches full-scenario data center products such as general hosting, large-scale customization, agile delivery, and high computing power, and formulates industry-wide data center solutions. It can provide customers with full life cycle services including data center site selection consultation, planning and design, product solutions, integrated management, engineering implementation, IDC leasing, network connectivity, cloud services, and operation and maintenance management. With the large-scale application of AI, the company, as an expert in “AI+ energy management”, is expected to fully benefit from industry progress and technological innovation.
Risk warning: The tight supply of IGBT modules affects the company's shipments; the cabinet availability rate falls short of expectations.