投资建议与估值：预计公司 2023 年-2025 年营收分别为 29.11 亿元、38.08 亿元、47.15 亿元，营收增速分别达到11.6%、30.8%、23.8%，归母净利润分别为3.32 亿元、5.03 亿元、6.69 亿元，增速分别达到 21.4%、51.2%、33.0%，维持“增持”投资评级。Incident: On November 13, the company announced that it had signed the “Construction Project General Contract” with North Huajin United Petrochemical Co., Ltd. on November 10. The total contract price (including tax) was 1.31 billion yuan, and the amount excluding tax was 1.17 billion yuan.
Ongoing orders for engineering projects have exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, supporting high performance growth. Referring to the announcement, the company signed a total of 36 new project orders in the third quarter, totaling 41.47 million yuan; by the end of September, the company had signed unfinished orders amounting to 520 million yuan. In addition to the 1.31 billion orders signed this time, the company's on-hand orders had reached 1.83 billion yuan, accounting for 276% of the company's total engineering business revenue in 2022 (660 million yuan). At the same time, the company continues to develop in the fields of hydrogen energy and molten salt energy storage, and undertook a number of general contracting or design projects in the field of hydrogen energy, such as Sinopec's Qingdao refining hydrogen energy resource base project, Geer Hydrogen Energy Technology's hydrogen energy utilization project, and the Qilu Hydrogen Energy Phase I hydrogen energy integration project, and China's first large-scale commercial photothermal power plant heat storage system EPC project.
The upgrading and transformation of Luyou and Lu Refining has begun, and the company's development has gained another opportunity. On November 6, the official website of Qilu Petrochemical published the first information release on the environmental impact assessment of the Luyou Refining Upgrading Project of the Qilu Branch of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation. The project included two major parts: (1) refining, construction of 10 million tons/year of constant pressure reduction, 2.1 million tons/year of high-end carbon materials, 2 million tons/year hydrocracking, 80,000 tons/year of sulfur recovery, 1 million tons/year of coking gasoline hydrogenation, etc.; (2) On the chemical side, 1 million tons of ethylene cracking unit was built downstream, 200,000 tons/year ethylene oxide, 600,000 tons/year of pyrolysis of gasoline, 1 million tons/year of aromatic hydrocarbon extraction and other devices. We believe that with: 1) location advantages, the company is located in Zibo close to Qilu Chemical Park; 2) historical origin, the company's predecessor was the Shengli Refinery Design Institute owned by Qilu Petrochemical; 3) good cooperation, the company has designed a large number of projects for Qilu Petrochemical; it is expected to fully benefit from the “Lu You Lulian” strategy and drive the development of the engineering business to flourish.
Investment recommendations and valuation: The company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 is estimated to be 2,911 billion yuan, 3.888 billion yuan and 4.715 billion yuan respectively, with revenue growth rates reaching 11.6%, 30.8% and 23.8% respectively, and net profit of 332 million yuan, 503 million yuan and 669 million yuan respectively, with growth rates reaching 21.4%, 51.2% and 33.0% respectively, maintaining the “increased holding” investment rating.
Risk warning: Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of production safety, risk of hydrogen energy and solar thermal projects falling short of expectations.