Source: Gao Yi Asset Management
Author: W run around Erba
Recently, there is another long interview about Feng Liu. Here are some study notes. The text box is the original text, the normal font is my notes, there is a large tendency of personal speculation, please distinguish carefully. My summary is attached at the end of the article.
Original 1:
The usual practice of an institution is for researchers to recommend companies to fund managers. I have been doing this for a period of time, and the results are not very satisfactory. Because the general researcher has noticed that there is always a reason for a ticket, which may cause the price to be partially reflected, and when he dares or is eager to recommend it, he may go through a process of being re-determined, all of which may make the opportunity reflected to a large extent.
For example, a company in the automobile industry (editor's note: the name of individual stocks is hidden, the same below), it was a golden opportunity at the beginning of 2016, but few people followed it, and most people did not notice it until 2017, when the price had reached more than 10 yuan. Researchers began to recommend it crazily, rising to 28 yuan by the end of 17 years.
But now there are only 12 yuan, and the turnover from 17 years to now is 38 billion shares, which is about HK $400 billion to HK $500 billion. most of the funds bought 17 years later are lost.
The mechanism recommended by researchers determines that researchers always start to strongly recommend them in the middle and high positions, which has lost the value of investment.
Original text 2:
I always think about what the world should be like, what characteristics it has, and under what circumstances opportunities may arise. I advocate transcendental logic and like to work behind closed doors. The stock market is impermanent, if it is a posteriori logic, it is easy to be drawn repeatedly, will fall into illusions and delusions.
What is a priori logic? First summarize a set of universal and overall theoretical system, and then apply this theoretical system to specific affairs.
What is posterior logic? According to the existing specific affairs, summarize some specific laws, and then apply the specific laws to specific affairs.
Transcendental logic can span times, countries and cultures, and it is a grand and inclusive system that can adapt to all kinds of situations; posterior logic is only some temporary and specific laws.
Quantitative investment is a typical posterior logic, according to the past database repeated calculation, debugging, get a best parameter, but use this parameter to invest, to predict the future, most of the returns are very poor.
According to the posterior logic, the big blue chip is considered to be the most worthy of investment in 2007, gem in 15 years, and pharmaceutical stocks in the first half of 18.
Original text 3:
The stock market has a lot of illusion caused by periodic understanding, and once an accident occurs, it is easy to be changed. If you want not to be drawn by the market and information, the most important thing is to go back to your heart, logic and common sense. I attach great importance to my inner feelings and don't care so much about the facts, because the facts need proof, and it is easy to change.
And I don't care about the outcome. A correct logic can have incorrect results, good karma and evil consequences are normal, but we still have to uphold the good to deal with the world.
For example, according to ROE, gross profit margin, dividend rate, industry competition pattern, management level, found that a home appliance industry company and a liquor industry company are very excellent, this is to respect logic and common sense.
For example, according to the excellent performance of a home appliance industry company and a liquor industry company in the past ten years, it is believed that they will have the same performance in the future. The so-called strong people are always strong, which is to respect the facts.
There will be a big deviation between these two ways at some point. For example, according to logic and common sense, it can be predicted that a TMT industry company will not survive, but in 15 years, the company is booming, with large sales of various products, good profit growth, and a deviation between logic, common sense and facts.
Logic is summed up by itself (according to Feng Liu's original words-working behind closed doors), and the facts are objective. Feng Liu attaches great importance to his summed up logic and generally accepted common sense, does not care about the facts at that time, and is not drawn by the market and information. This is the independent side of him.
Original text 4:
Logically speaking, my system (the weak system) should not have excess returns, because I emphasize defense rather than progress, so I may not have particularly large irreversible losses in the long run, but I may not necessarily have sustained excess returns. I always assume that I am bound to make mistakes and that I cannot grasp the best kind of opportunities, so I give up being a top student and just want to keep myself alive. If we say that sometimes there will be excess returns, it may only be a periodic accident. We happen to encounter the smart people in this market who are making mistakes. We should know that the market fluctuates greatly and the gains and losses are great. The so-called profit makes people lose their wits and lust for profit. In the face of great gains and losses, smart people may also lose their minds.
Just as there are some very superficial scams in life that can succeed, the deceived often remorse himself afterwards and wonder how it could be so stupid at that time, because something held him back and made him lose his mind and nature.
The amount of information in this paragraph is very large.
Feng Liu's weak system means that his research on enterprises is not deep enough and information acquisition is insufficient. And those who specialize in in-depth research on a certain industry (such as medicine, very professional), or people in the industry, have the first source of information, these people are called strong by Feng Liu.
Feng Liu thinks that he is weak, so he will not take the initiative to attack and dare not come to a conclusion decisively when there is chaos. Generally speaking, this approach is conservative and defensive, and rarely makes big mistakes.
But in stages, those who are strong or smart, with a lust for profit, lose their mind before great gains and losses, and give a serious mispricing, which will enable Feng Liu, a weak person who keeps an ordinary mind and believes in common sense, to catch opportunities and gain excess profits.
Feng Liu believes that there are two kinds of excess returns: one is that the research is particularly deep, or there is a source of information that is one step ahead, and this kind of person takes the initiative and can obtain a kind of excess return; the other is that the research depth is not enough and there is no source of information, but he is good at being "clumsy" and waits for smart people to make big mistakes and win with one blow and get excess returns.
Feng Liu is the latter.
Original 5:
So I will look for the risk points, the big gains and losses, and the time when I can scare smart people. I don't ask myself to be smart, because it's too difficult to make a good judgment. I just try not to be drawn by gains and losses and be an outsider.
No matter how good a company is, if there is no risk point, worry point, I seldom intervene. I want to take risks and uncertainties. I don't have the ability to earn money with intelligence and level, but I am willing to take risks. There are too many smart people and not many people willing to take risks.
Of course, the premise of taking the risk is that the risk is fully exposed and priced. I am willing to take the real risk, but will avoid the theoretical risk. When the risk has become a reality and everyone is worried, I will actively bear it. The theoretical risk is logically and theoretically possible, but people think that it will not happen for the time being.
With regard to cleverness and wisdom, Feng Liu thinks that the strong are very smart, while he should be wise (he is relatively low-key and does not say it directly, but that is what he means).
How to maintain wisdom? Not involved, be an outside spectator, the so-called "bystander is clear".
How to win the game with smart people? There are too many smart people, not many are willing to take risks, and Feng Liu is willing to take risks.
Can all the risks be taken? No. The risk that has been fully exposed and priced can be borne; Feng Liu is unwilling to take the risk that is theoretically possible but not worried about for the time being.
For example, for a media company, the risk of economic downturn, the risk of deteriorating competition and the risk of explosive expansion seem to have been fully exposed, but what about pricing? It seems that it does not fully reflect the risk, and it is not cheap enough.
A company in the liquor industry, will the consumption tax on spirits be raised? The price of liquor is highly related to infrastructure and PPI. PPI has been bullish for several years. Will it continue to decline in the future? In theory, it is possible, but no one is too worried. This is the kind of risk that Feng Liu is unwilling to take.
Original text 6:
I think the market is always right, and when it's wrong, it's not the market. What is the market? Is my deal with you a market? No, the real market is diversified, and many participants exchange in it. This is the market. When the market is dominated by a point of view and most people think from one point of view, the market loses its diversity, and that is not the real market.
When the market is pluralistic, it is unpredictable, and when its principal contradiction is reduced enough to be recognized, it becomes easy to judge and determine, at this time it is not a stable state. So I think about the possibility of reversal in a state where it's easy to judge, because it's often unsustainable.
'The market is always right, 'Mr. Feng said.
A diversified market, there are a variety of views, these views may be completely opposite, may also be cut into different angles. It is precisely because of the diversity of views that every point of view is correct.
For example, some people think that we should invest in high dividends, some people think that we should invest in high growth, some people think that we should invest in certainty, and some people think that we should invest in monopoly. These views are correct. But if one day, almost everyone in the market thinks that we should invest in high growth or certainty, and everyone agrees, then the market is wrong.
What Feng Liu really means is that in a diversified market, every point of view is correct; a market with a unified view and complete homogenization is wrong, and this state is not sustainable.
Here is an extension of thinking, at present are shouting "core assets", this point of view is becoming more and more unified, the market is becoming more and more homogeneous, is it close to a mistake?
Original 7:
I like to find consensus. What is consensus? Why does a stock fluctuate? Research for a long time to find the reason is controversial rather than consensual, you go to the software and forums to glance, five minutes to know the reason is consensual. So, the less time you spend on research, the more efficient it is. I seldom do in-depth research, because what you have to spend so much time to understand must not be a consensus. As a result, you may pay a lot and have not gained anything yet.
How to get the market consensus? Take a look at the ordinary forum, the lower the threshold, the better, the lower the threshold, which proves that the wider the story spreads, which is called simple presentation.
Of course, finding a consensus is not necessarily worth participating in. The consensus may be right or wrong. We also need to find common sense, which does not need to be demonstrated. I will reverse when the consensus is inconsistent with common sense, go forward when the consensus is consistent with common sense, rely on common sense to find consensus, reverse on consensus that can be changed, and move forward on consensus that cannot be changed.
About consensus and common sense.
If the market does not reach a consensus on a certain point of view, there will be great differences, and there will be no value for Feng Liu to participate at this time, because Feng Liu is weak and cannot tell who is right on both sides of the dispute.
If the market reaches a consensus, it will be valuable to Feng Liu. Feng Liu can determine the direction of operation by comparing consensus with common sense (common sense does not need to be judged).
For example, in 15 years, there was a consensus in the market: if you invest in fundamentals, you lose at the starting line. This consensus obviously runs counter to common sense, and it is time to invest in fundamentals.
But what is consensus? Feng Liu believes that we should go to the ordinary forums with low threshold to find a consensus, where the consensus is the real grass-roots consensus.
Original 8:
Some risks may be difficult to demonstrate alone, but they can be resolved from a large number point of view. Just like husband and wife quarrel, quarrel turned upside down, everyone is worried, think it is impossible to live, but in most cases can be better after the quarrel, this is a common sense. I will not struggle, whether they will divorce this time, I take a fancy to the whole, not entangled in a single right or wrong.
Common risks: the air conditioning market peaking, the real estate market peaking, the car market peaking, these are difficult to prove from the negative, but in the long run, basically not a big problem, belong to every industry decline, will be moved out of the risk.
Original 9:
At the end of November 2015, I decided to look for opportunities in the more pessimistic Hong Kong stocks. At that time, people thought that Hong Kong stocks had been marginalized. I judged that this was a consensus that could be changed.
By the second half of last year, I judged that A-shares were clearer and more dominated by consensus than Hong Kong stocks, so I made great efforts to return A-shares.
At the beginning of 16 years, there was a simple and clear consensus in the market that Hong Kong stocks had been marginalized. Feng Liu thought that this consensus was not in line with common sense, so he went to Hong Kong stocks to look for opportunities. By the second half of last year, Feng Liu thought that A-shares had a stronger consensus than Hong Kong stocks, so he returned to A-shares to look for opportunities. What is the specific consensus of A shares he did not say, I guess it is the "core asset"?
Original 10:
Consensus is only a starting point for us to study enterprises, not a serious operating point. The key is to judge whether the consensus can be changed. It can only be done forward where it cannot be changed and reverse where it can be changed. Starting from a few local points to confront a long-term consensus that cannot be falsified, we are stuck in a quagmire again and again and have to admit our mistakes. Therefore, if the consensus of certainty is reached in a longer dimension, we must join and obey it and must not confront it.
As mentioned earlier, when consensus is contrary to common sense, you can invest in the opposite direction. It is added here that if the consensus has been reached over a long period of time and has withstood the long-term test, it cannot be reversed.
This is a wonderful phenomenon. Consensus runs counter to common sense for a long time, but consensus is still consensus, common sense is common sense, and no one can change each other.
Original 11:
The backflow began to accelerate in the second half of 2018 and exceeded the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in January 2019. Before my data model, very few stocks were selected in A shares, and it began to increase quarter by quarter in 2018. By October, 1700 stocks were selected. At that time, my assistant criticized that it was still called stock selection, so you might as well list the whole market for us to study. Looking back, the election of the whole market is actually a stronger one.
This probably means that 2400 points of the Shanghai Composite Index, 7000 points of the Shenzhen Stock Index, 1200 points of the gem refers to five-star investment opportunities.
Original 12:
To find a better time is actually a kind of greed. People often ask me how to choose the time. I say that the best time is not to choose the time, as long as it is a price that I can accept. This will reduce a lot of anxiety and entanglement, and will not leave a workload for the future.
I buy a lot of stocks will fall, sell will also rise, but I do not struggle, because I liberate myself from the problem, do not accumulate contradictions and work for the future. Solve it immediately, sell the tickets you don't want immediately, and don't wait for a rebound or a better selling point. even if you lose a little bit, it will compensate you in other ways and keep you in a relaxed state of mind. Don't let yourself get into invisible trouble.
Choose the price, not the buy point. This can keep you psychologically relaxed, avoid anxiety, and then avoid making big mistakes. It's important to be relaxed.
Original 13:
My system is an odds priority system, not probability priority, probability priority system is concentrated investment, for example, in-depth research is probability priority, emphasizing the ability circle, to see the next five or ten years. Odds priority is not about whether a single stock is right or wrong, but whether it follows its own system.
Of course, I will sometimes be very focused, because at the beginning of the purchase, it may just be a framework analysis, but in the process of holding, I may gradually understand and become an in-depth study. At this time, if there is a unified probability and odds, I will increase the concentration of the position, but because it is a fault-tolerant system, I always assume that I must be wrong, so I have a tendency to disperse.
Give priority to odds and diversify the investment.
According to your own investment model, find a bunch of potential shares that are doubled to several times, some of which are successful, some are mediocre, some are failed, because the point of purchase is very low, and there is nothing to lose, relying on the part of success to pull up the overall income. In addition, when successful stocks gradually become clear, you can sell some vague stocks to increase your position and turn it into a centralized investment, which can further improve the yield.
However, in order to be fault-tolerant, it is generally inclined to be scattered.
Feng Liu gives priority to odds, not probability. At present, the most important thing in the A-share market is probability and certainty, giving a high premium to deterministic stocks and a great discount to stocks with low certainty, resulting in high odds of these stocks, so Feng Liu returned to A-shares to pursue odds.
Original 14:
Is that the heart thinks that the counterparty is right, the other party thinks it is not good, I also agree, I just look forward to change, just because its risk is exposed, can not be hurt to wait for change, this is the weak system.
The strong system is that you say bad, but I think it is good, you think it is expensive, but I think it is cheap, this is the real reverse, tit-for-tat exchange of views, independent opinions to make big differences. On the other hand, the weak system has to avoid in the face of major differences between right and wrong, and it can only look for opportunities for change after reaching a consensus.
The strong judge voluntarily. The weak accept the judgment of the strong, but passively wait for change and opportunity after the risk is exposed.
Original 15:
My MSN signature more than a decade ago read that "good companies are more important than good prices." at that time, I demonstrated in the forum that after buying high-growth companies with exaggerated high valuations and then selling them at exaggerated undervaluations, there would still be a good return. But then I gave up this statement, because it is unapproachable and divorced from the reality that we are bound to make mistakes, although it is not a big problem to buy too much from the perspective of ultra-long-term investment. but if you make a mistake, it can completely destroy your investment career. We emphasize that buying cheap is not to improve returns, but to retain the right to amend, because excellence can be judged in the process, but greatness can only be summed up afterwards, it requires opportunity and some unexpected factors. The confirmation after the event is uncertain in advance, and we can only verify it through constant observation in the process, which requires a process of maintenance and correction, and the high price deprives you of the right to amend from the very beginning.
Recently, there has been a lot of controversy about Feng Liu's shareholdings. The core point is that most people think that his holdings are mediocre companies, and some even think that he is using his fame to cut leeks.
Feng Liu believes that people are bound to make mistakes. Buying too much is not a big problem most of the time, but if you happen to be wrong, it will ruin your investment career.
Great companies are summed up after the event. At present, if you buy those cheap ordinary companies, at least you won't make a big mistake, and you can fix it at any time, probably riding a donkey to find a horse.
Original 16:
High position is the comparison between stock and stock, each adjustment is above the last standard, and the position selection needs to switch between cash and stock, which is the comparison between stock and cash, returning to the original origin each time. The position structure of the former is being optimized and iterated, which can form a mechanism of continuous self-renewal and self-optimization, which accords with the principle of compound interest, while the latter is the principle of simple interest.
At the end of 2015, when I first entered the Hong Kong stock market, I did not buy all good companies and good prices, but it was not greatly affected because the portfolio was constantly optimized. When I returned to A-shares last year, I didn't like the position structure at the beginning, and many stocks were not what I wanted most, but I wanted to meet the strategy of returning A-shares and long-term high positions, so I thought I would almost buy them, and then optimize them through stock exchange. You have seen that the positions I have partially disclosed have changed a lot over the past few quarters, and that is why my portfolio requires a process of optimizing iteration and precipitation.
We can see Feng Liu's mode of operation here. When he feels that there is a big opportunity in a certain market or a certain field (odds first), he will first rush into the scattered layout of a lot of stocks, then slowly study, iterate and optimize, sell the stocks that feel bad, and replace them with other ones, and finally settle down the companies he thinks are good.
So many people think that the company he bought is mediocre, and to some extent, he also thinks so. He should have reservations about his new stock. Only when he holds a stock for more than a year and is precipitated will it be of great research value.
Original 17:
Sometimes it doesn't seem to be much, but the general market decline of 30% is not small. If you sell half of it in advance, you can avoid a 15% drop. But you are not a god, you can't be right every time. 70% of the success rate is already very good. 7 times to do right and 3 times to make mistakes, that is, to do right 4 times, and then consider the transaction cost, you may end up doing right 3 times. On average, you can only avoid a fall of more than 4 points.
There are not many years in which the index has fallen by 30%, and on average, it may only be about 1 or 2 points. In order to reduce this little pullback, you have to risk the bull market, the entanglements in the process, the decline in your quality of life, and, more importantly, shift your attention from individual stock research to other areas. the risk that the investment logic is not pure is too much to lose.
And all the previous assumptions are that you have a 70% chance of winning, the fact is that it is very difficult to do, personally, it is basically the opposite, because as long as you participate, you are bound to be drawn and lose to your own humanity.
For investors like Feng Liu, taking fundamentals as the core, if you worry too much about the market risk, it will lead to mental disorder, and in the long run, the excess return is not high. So he has been operating in a high position.
Of course, some investors are not based on fundamentals, but mainly on market analysis. this type of investors can have short or full positions anytime and anywhere.
Original 18:
Keeping a high position at all times will minimize your mood swings. Many people ask, why do you dare to buy stocks at a low level? I said that if you buy stocks in cash, you will definitely not dare, but if you keep full positions and just exchange shares, there is no question of whether you dare or not, because you are changing from more fear to fear, which is driven by the mechanism, not by courage. Don't say, there is no such problem as some people are good in art and daring. A stock is falling, and it may continue to fall tomorrow. As long as you are a human being, you will certainly be mistaken by human nature, but to me, this stock will fall, and so will others. dying anywhere is the same thing, so why not die on something more desirable? When everyone is afraid, I am just as scared, and human nature is the same, so I hand myself over to mechanism and discipline.
If you look at the publicly disclosed information, you will say that I bought a stock at the low point, but remember, I always have a high position, so when I buy one stock at the low point, it also means selling another stock at the low point, and vice versa. It's not braver or timid than others, just changing positions.
I have a deep feeling about this, because that's how I operate. Switching stocks under the background of high positions can avoid mood swings as far as possible, maintain a stable state of mind, and the judgment will be relatively objective.
Original 19:
I lost a lot of money in 2008, but for so many years, it doesn't matter, it doesn't affect the long-term yield, but if I always worry about it, I may not be able to make a normal profit in other years. I have been in the market for 16 years and traded 1 year's loss for 15 years of ease and leisure. it is very worthwhile. I regard it as a ticket to enter the market, as the cost of a good lifestyle and working condition. I am not worried about it or prevent it. When I come, I will face it calmly, which is an inevitable part of the system. Many people can't accept systemic collapse, do everything they can to prevent avoidance, and then destroy their normal way of work and life, which is not worth it. I think for that kind of system that can be rebuilt, you just need to make sure that you can follow the reconstruction of the system, do not do the behavior that will be forced to exit without leverage, and usually do nothing in a hurry, and try to keep yourself in a state of recoverability and reconstruction.
And for the kind of system risk that can not be rebuilt, my opinion is not to escape, because we are members of the system, our fate must be linked to the system, this is the fate that we should accept. Just like what is the significance of leaving on a spaceship alone when the earth is destroyed? there are some problems that we should not face and think about. We have to define where the boundary between ourselves and the system is. Don't let the powerlessness affect the side that can make a difference. This is unfounded.
There will always be a systemic crisis in one year, and if you are in a state of panic all the time in order to avoid this once-in-a-decade systemic crisis, it will lose long-term benefits and reduce the quality of life.
For systemic crises, we should make certain preparations:
If you survive the crisis, you must make sure that you can survive the crisis and not lose all your wealth in the crisis; if the crisis breaks out completely and you fall down with it, you should accept it safely, because this is your destiny.
Original text 20:
Public information can still be known, we just do not dig, I like companies that are not easily affected by information. For example, the performance of a company has been poor, but its valuation is very high, it has risen five or six times and there has been no performance. the reason for its rise is that people think that it is bound to be the ultimate winner, and there is a lot of room for market capitalization in the end. when this logic is very strong, the current performance and information are not important, this is the consensus that cannot be changed. Since the logic that supports this consensus is framework and common sense, and has nothing to do with short-and medium-term information, it doesn't matter whether you exchange research with the company and whether you have first-hand information or not.
On this point, I thought of a new energy automobile industry company. As far as I understand it, it is far inferior to some other car companies, but because the market thinks that new energy will eventually be the big winner, and this company is the leading brand in the new energy field, it is willing to give it a high market capitalization.
Its valuation method is the final market value method, not the PE or PB valuation method.
Consensus is sometimes a kind of belief.
Original 21:
"think of yourself as selfless, merciful, wise, and free. "
If you treat yourself as someone else, you will not be drawn by your own needs, will not fall into gains and losses and desires, and watch your heart understand your real needs and ideas.
To regard others as ourselves is to ask us to jump out of our own subjectivity and limitations and think from the point of view of others why they did so, so that we can get rid of our own obsession and narrowness.
To treat others as others is to retain their own independence from outside influence. I understand you and fully understand you, but I do not follow you, pursue the market, and are not dominated by the illusion of change.
Think of yourself as yourself, accept your imperfections, let go of greed, forgive your mistakes, learn to reconcile with yourself, and find a relaxed and sustainable state. When you are uncomfortable, you feel tired, relaxed, and easy to blame yourself. these feelings will accumulate slowly, and in the end, either your will will break down, your body will break down, or your partner around you will collapse. These are all uncomfortable states.
Feng Liu has always emphasized the weak system and does not directly judge the differences in the fundamentals of the enterprise, but he should observe the various viewpoints of the market, study the market consensus, and judge the relationship between consensus and common sense.
For Feng Liu, what is more important is not the enterprise (object), but the market itself (subject), and the subject is divided into itself and others. How can we fully understand their own and other people's views and behavior, and then make a correct choice?
Be detached, peaceful and receptive.
Original 22:
I like companies with simple conditions, but sometimes I hold companies that do not meet the standard due to the need for high positions. This is a process of comparison, and my thinking point is: which has fewer assumptions. It is possible that I will change from a stock with 100% growth space to a stock with only 50% room for growth, just because it has fewer conditions and is simpler. My focus is which is more comfortable and reassuring.
Companies with simple conditions will have higher accuracy when thinking, and it will be easier to judge market consensus and common sense.
Original 23:
It is good to have emotions and sufferings, it will make you think, don't fight and control your own human nature. You are already very uncomfortable, but tell yourself, do not feel uncomfortable, to insist, this is not right. Because the market has countless ways to magnify it, and there must be times when you can't bear it, not only do you not fight and avoid it, but you also have to take the initiative to enlarge it. The frost is so strong that you have to tell yourself that I am not feeling well. There must be something wrong with it. You have to solve it immediately. Don't wait until you lose your mind to deal with it passively.
To make good use of your emotions, this will make you pay more attention to this stock, where the money is, where the heart is, so, others first study and then buy, I buy first, in order to let my heart pass and replace my emotions. If you think it's good, buy it first, add it if you don't feel enough, add it until you're afraid of it, don't accumulate your own needs, but meet it quickly, so that you can experience it beyond your own needs, rather than lust. Many people say that I buy and sell stocks very casually. I participate first and then study it. This is my system.
I used to say that when making an investment, you should listen to three voices: listen to the voice of the enterprise, listen to the voice of the market, and listen to the voice of your heart. Listening to your inner voice actually has nothing to do with the fact that whether this enterprise is good or not and whether it will rise in the future are two different things from whether you want to hold it or not. When you are uncomfortable and can not solve it, you can give it up, even if it will increase tenfold in the future, you have to give up now, because it already makes you uncomfortable now, and there will be more tests in the future.
Of course, comfort has a lot to do with your understanding. It must be uncomfortable for a person to speak ill of you, but if you know why he does so, it will be less uncomfortable if you understand it. Therefore, when I am anxious, I will constantly examine and review what makes me anxious and what makes me uneasy. Can I understand? if I can understand and explain reasonably, I will increase the position and chop it off. It has nothing to do with the facts, but has something to do with my inner feelings and ability circle.
This long paragraph is all about mentality. One of the key words, don't wait to lose your mind before dealing with it passively. Instead of confronting and avoiding emotions, deal with them immediately.
Because once emotions accumulate, it will affect their own judgment, to a certain extreme position, there will be emotional top, operation deformation, resulting in major mistakes.
People who don't invest may not understand this, and people who invest for a long time will feel it deeply. I had a few emotional moments myself last year.
Original 24:
Although we are not small, but the workload is not large, because I am not an information-driven system, I also want my team members to reduce their dependence on information, and most of their workload is tracking and processing information. if you just follow the framework and logic, the workload will be much less.
Logic and information are mentioned here, similar to the prior logic and a posteriori logic. A posteriori logic is based on information processing, and a priori logic is based on logic and framework.
Original 25:
Many people think that I am very talented, but in fact it is just the opposite. This is not modesty, because we will have a natural comparison and self-awareness in the crowd. It's just that the more talented a person is, the less problems he will encounter, and the less complete the system he builds is likely to be, the less applicable to others. Poetry must be poor before work, and people with low talent will encounter enough problems to build a more complete system.
Munger says you don't go there if you know where you're going to die. So I draw a lot of frames for myself to hide in it as much as possible, and people with high talent live well wherever they go, so they naturally have much less restrictions on themselves.
It is not because he cannot see that many people make mistakes. They really have great skills and courage, believing that they will be able to perceive and act earlier than the market, but when things change, the market will always punish them in an unexpected way and complexity, and people are unbeatable. Therefore, being too talented is not necessarily a good thing.
I was not a good student since I was a child, and I have never asked myself to be at the front. I am always a very comfortable person, and many people will say that I am not enterprising enough. In fact, most people in society can accept their mediocrity, but entering the stock market will change, because the stock market gives them illusions and desires.
I won't explain this part, it's very straightforward.
Finally, it is concluded that Feng Liu's investment thought has a strong Taoist element, slow to control the fast, passive to take the initiative, and the weak to overcome the strong.
Reverse investment, odds first, diversification tendency. Do not pursue cleverness, but pursue simple and peaceful wisdom. Take the initiative to take risks and avoid theoretical risks.
Starting with a priori thinking rather than a posteriori information shows that he is a value investor. Like simple conditions (few factors) and avoid complex conditions (multi-factors), because multi-factors will increase the error probability of a priori thinking.
To understand the impermanence of the world, no matter how rigorous the transcendental thinking is, there is a greater probability of deviation in the end, and the deviation is calmly accepted. Because deviations often occur, it is necessary to conduct enterprise research with the attitude of the weak, not to take the initiative to judge when differences are huge, but to study the views of other participants in the market, waiting for the strong to make mistakes, and looking for market consensus (somewhat similar to copying homework).
Comparing the market consensus with common sense, compliance is positive, long-term non-compliance is non-participation, and short-term non-compliance is reverse. Most of the time, there is no market consensus, there will be no particularly good investment opportunities, can only hold shares and wait.
Slowly ride a donkey to find a horse, leaving room for horse selection, so as to avoid a fatal blow caused by looting a high-priced horse.
Maintain a high position for a long time, only do stock exchange, reduce psychological fluctuations. When buying and selling stocks in line with the price standards, do not care about the trend, do not delay.
Do not fight, do not avoid emotions, emotional problems should be solved immediately, do not let yourself anxious.
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Edit / Phoebe