盈利预测与估值：暂不考虑KC1036 等创新药获批上市对业绩的贡献，我们预计2023 年至2025 年公司营业收入分别为10.48 亿元、12.50 亿元和14.01 亿元，同比增速分别为20.9%、19.4%和12.1%；归母净利润分别为1.68 亿元、2.10 亿元和2.55 亿元，同比增速分别为66.1%、24.4%和21.4%，以11 月10 日收盘价计算，对应PE 分别为37.5、30.2 和24.8倍，维持“买入”评级。Events: The company released its three-quarter report for 2023. The first three quarters of 2023 achieved operating income of 720 million yuan (+22.46%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 149 million yuan (+43.37%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 138 million yuan (+146.74%), net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 138 million yuan (+146.74%); achieved operating income of 269 million yuan (+24.40%) in the third quarter, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 55.74 million yuan (+157.69%), attributable to shareholders of listed companies Net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 53.17 million yuan (+146.44%).
Under industry fluctuations, it is expected that “Suling” will maintain relatively rapid growth, and its immediate demand attributes are remarkable. Under industry policy fluctuations, the company's revenue and profit side maintained relatively rapid growth in the third quarter, showing that the core product, viper blood coagulant (trade name: “Suring”), continued the rapid growth trend of the previous trend, and its immediate demand was remarkable. We believe that by seizing competitive markets, developing empty hospitals, and activating less active hospitals, etc., the clinical value of “Suring” is expected to be fully unleashed, and it is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth trend over the next 2-3 years.
Research and development of innovative drugs is progressing steadily, and a breakthrough is yet to be achieved. During the reporting period, KC1036 tablets were being carried out in phase II clinical studies, which included more than 100 subjects with advanced solid tumors. Significant clinical efficacy has been observed in various solid tumors such as esophageal cancer and thymic carcinoma. The phase III clinical trial of Jincao tablets has been carried out smoothly, and the enrollment of all subjects has been completed. The application for registration of a new drug for injectable viper hemagglutinin in dogs has been accepted. The company's innovative drug research and development is progressing steadily, and it is expected that the company's innovative research and development results will gradually be realized within the next 2-3 years.
Profit forecast and valuation: Without considering the contribution of innovative drugs such as KC1036 to performance, we expect the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 to be 1,048 million yuan, 1,250 million yuan and 1,401 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 19.4% and 12.1% respectively; net profit of 168 million yuan, 210 million yuan and 255 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 24.4% and 21.4%, calculated at the closing price on November 10, corresponding to PE At 37.5, 30.2, and 24.8 times, respectively, it maintained its “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The price reduction of drugs in national/local collection exceeded expectations; innovative drug research and development failed.
