测算公司2023Q3 产销约8.93 万吨，产能利用率约71.4%，营收下滑48.0%主因欧洲市场需求疲弱致UCOME 出口量价齐跌。2022 年公司出口量占福建省比重90.9%，故参考福建省出口数据来看公司主业情况。考虑汇兑，福建省2023Q3 生物柴油出口量9.82 万吨，同比-29.2%；出口单价7704 元/吨，同比-36.2%。假设公司出口占福建省出口比重为90.9%，则公司2023Q3 出口8.93 万吨，产能利用率为71.4%，较前期90%以上的产能利用率下滑较多。生物柴油量价下跌主因：1）2023 年4 月以来欧盟对中国生物柴油企业进行原料审查，造成情绪性恐慌，欧盟生物柴油买方需求减弱；2）欧盟经济增长放缓，道路柴油需求减弱。Description of the event
2023Q1-3 achieved revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.0%; net profit of 153 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.4%; net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 174 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.8%. Among them, 2023Q3 achieved revenue of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.0%, a year-on-month decrease of 24.0%; net profit of 1,345,000 yuan, a decrease of 99.2% over the previous year, a decrease of 98.3% over the previous year; and net profit after deduction of 7.307 million yuan, a decrease of 95.2% year-on-year and 92.6% month-on-month.
Incident comments
It is estimated that the company's 2023Q3 production and sales were about 893,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate was about 71.4%, and revenue fell by 48.0%, mainly due to weak demand in the European market, UCOME's export volume and price fell sharply. In 2022, the company's export volume accounted for 90.9% of Fujian Province, so refer to the export data of Fujian Province to see the company's main business situation. Considering exchange, Fujian's 2023Q3 biodiesel export volume was 982,000 tons, -29.2% year-on-year; the export unit price was 7,704 yuan/ton, -36.2% year-on-year. Assuming that the company's exports account for 90.9% of Fujian's exports, the company exports 88,300 tons in 2023Q3, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.4%, which is a significant decline from the capacity utilization rate of more than 90% in the previous period. The main reasons for the decline in biodiesel volume and price are: 1) Since April 2023, the EU has carried out a raw material review of Chinese biodiesel companies, causing emotional panic, and demand from EU biodiesel buyers has weakened; 2) EU economic growth has slowed, and demand for road diesel has weakened.
The net profit of the 2023Q3 company fell 99.2%, and it is estimated that biodiesel is close to the break-even point. Referring to the 2022A results, assuming that biodiesel profit accounts for 85%-95% of the company's net profit, it is estimated that the net profit of a single ton of biodiesel in 2023Q3 is about 12.8-14.3 yuan/ton, which is close to the break-even point. The decline in profitability was mainly due to the decline in UCOME prices, while the decline in gutter oil prices was limited, causing the company's biodiesel gross margin to drop 7.73 pct to 3.92% year on year.
The decline in net profit attributable to the company's parent exceeded the decline in revenue due to the fact that expenses remained rigid during the period, and other income and investment income declined.
The 2023Q3 company's period expenses were +1.51% year over year. It is estimated that depreciation and amortization, employee remuneration, etc. remained rigid, and the period fee rate increased by 3.23 pct to 6.62% year over year due to falling revenue; the decline in biodiesel prices and the reduction in immediate VAT revenue, resulting in a decrease in other income of 43.08 million yuan; investment income decreased by 11.62 million yuan year on year; investment income decreased by 11.62 million yuan year on year, presumed to be a loss in forward foreign exchange transactions, which also hampered the company's performance.
Looking ahead to the future market of waste oil to biodiesel: 1) Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of EU raw material review: Currently, the most important factor in suppressing the biodiesel industry is still the European raw material review. After ISCC started the first round of review in April 2023, the European Commission officially launched an anti-circumvention investigation into “the possibility that Indonesian biodiesel may enter the European market through re-export trade between China and the United Kingdom”. The investigation is still ongoing, causing the EU's demand for UCOME imported from China to be weak; 2) In the long run: China's waste oil and grease biodiesel are both carbon reduction and competition for food with the public The advantage is that the demand side remains strong in the context of the EU's carbon emissions reduction; the application of long-term biofuels in aviation and shipping is expected to further open up room for growth.
The company's 200,000 tons/year hydrocarbon-based biodiesel (and bioaerocal) production line and 50,000 tons/year natural fatty alcohol project are progressing as scheduled. The company's biodiesel production capacity is expected to be 50/50/700,000 tons in 2023-2025, respectively. It is expected that the commissioning of the hydrocarbon-based biodiesel project will bring performance elasticity. The Singaporean and Dutch subsidiaries obtained ISCC and other certifications in May, which helps the company to grasp overseas market trends in a timely manner. Profit forecast and valuation: The company's net profit from 2023-2025 is expected to be 1.86/3.87/518 million yuan, or -58.7%/+107.9%/+33.6% over the same period last year. The PE valuation is 26.6x/12.8x/9.56x, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
1. The market pattern of the upstream raw materials industry has undergone major changes, and the difficulty of purchasing raw materials has increased; 2. EU market demand falls short of expectations.
